Telstar
vs
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Telstar 1–0 ADO Den Haag
The model makes it 45% Telstar, 29% draw, 26% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Telstar 1.71, ADO Den Haag 1.02.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Telstar at 45% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Telstar
- L0-1away to AZ Alkmaar20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Heerenveen13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
- D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
- L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
ADO Den Haag
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
- L1-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 August 2026
What these results say
- Telstar did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Telstar failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
- 17 May 2025ADO Den Haag 0–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 13 May 2025Telstar 2–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 11 April 2025Telstar 1–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024ADO Den Haag 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 15 March 2024Telstar 3–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 22 September 2023ADO Den Haag 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
The two sides
Telstar carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.43 for ADO Den Haag. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Telstar and 1.02 for ADO Den Haag. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Telstar rate 0.65 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ADO Den Haag rate 0.62 and 1.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Telstar the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Telstar against 1.02 for ADO Den Haag. Telstar's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.43 for ADO Den Haag.