Telstar vs ADO Den Haag Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Telstar 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Telstar, 27% draw, 24% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Telstar at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. KoemanG
- 3Gerald AldersD
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 10T. OwusuM
- 17N. RossenM
- 7Rui MendesF
- 9Jelani SeedorfF
- 27P. BrouwerF
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 18G. CaschiliD
- 8E. DemircanF
- 2J. HardeveldD
- 14H. KusterM
- 42A. MarthaD
- 13Finn MulderG
- 28R. OudstenD
- 20D. ReizigerG
- 1K. NikiémaG
- 5J. Jensen-AbbewD
- 3P. MulderD
- 4M. WaemD
- 15M. HokkeD
- 24Alejandro PozoM
- 25J. KiloM
- 33M. ŠínM
- 17J. HawkinsM
- 46Y. EduardoF
- 11E. RottierF
- 8J. ŽambůrekM
- 77D. BárányF
- 22L. WilhelmD
- 7D. van MieghemF
- 27N. ThomasF
- 23N. ThiedeG
- 18S. SyllaD
- 2O. RaterinkD
- 14M. JiménezM
Form going into Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Telstar
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to AZ Alkmaar20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Heerenveen13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
- D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
- L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
ADO Den Haag
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
- L1-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 August 2026
What these results say
- Telstar did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Telstar failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
- 17 May 2025ADO Den Haag 0–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 13 May 2025Telstar 2–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 11 April 2025Telstar 1–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024ADO Den Haag 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 15 March 2024Telstar 3–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Telstar and ADO Den Haag
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Telstar and ADO Den Haag drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Telstar at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tyrone Owusu 14' for Telstar, Yannick Fereira Eduardo 16' for ADO Den Haag, Evan Rottier 25' for ADO Den Haag, Tyrone Owusu 37' for Telstar. Sent off: Milan Hokke (ADO Den Haag) 13'. On expected goals it finished 2.91–1.40.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Telstar a 15.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.6% after a win, 16.1% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.1%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For ADO Den Haag the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 60.6% going in: 52.1% after a win, 60.5% after a draw, 64.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 60.5%.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Telstar v ADO Den Haag has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Telstar's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Telstar win49%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −2
- ADO Den Haag win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.