Ružomberok
vs
Žilina
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Ružomberok 1–2 Žilina
The model makes it 27% Ružomberok, 28% draw, 45% Žilina — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ružomberok 1.13, Žilina 1.76.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ružomberok are bottom on 5 points from 9 games; Žilina are 2nd on 20 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- Ružomberok have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FK Košice.
- Žilina are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to AS Trencin.
- Last 6 meetings: Ružomberok 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 6 December 2025, ended Žilina 1–2 Ružomberok.
All Slovak Super Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ružomberok vs Žilina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Žilina at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ružomberok vs Žilina
Ružomberok
- L0-2away to FK Košice19 September 2026
- W3-0Zemplín Michalovce12 September 2026
- D1-1Spartak Trnava6 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Trencin29 August 2026
- L0-1Dukla Banská Bystrica22 August 2026
Žilina
- W2-1AS Trencin19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Slovan Bratislava13 September 2026
- W3-1Podbrezová5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Spartak Trnava30 August 2026
- W2-1Komárno23 August 2026
What these results say
- Ružomberok failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ružomberok conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Žilina went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Žilina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Žilina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ružomberok vs Žilina
- 6 December 2025Žilina 1–2 RužomberokSuper Liga
- 31 August 2025Ružomberok 3–3 ŽilinaSuper Liga
- 3 November 2024Ružomberok 1–0 ŽilinaSuper Liga
- 29 October 2024Žilina 3–1 RužomberokSuper Liga
- 11 May 2024Ružomberok 1–1 ŽilinaSuper Liga
- 12 April 2024Žilina 0–0 RužomberokSuper Liga
The two sides
Ružomberok carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.48 for Žilina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Ružomberok and 1.76 for Žilina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ružomberok rate 0.42 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Žilina rate 0.78 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ružomberok a 0% chance of the title and Žilina 9.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Žilina the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ružomberok against 1.76 for Žilina. Ružomberok's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.65 for Žilina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ružomberok at home · Žilina away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Ružomberok 9, Žilina 9.
Žilina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Ružomberok have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ružomberok
- at Komárno17 Oct · Super Ligawin 26%
- at Dunajska Streda24 Oct · Super Ligawin 12%
- vs Skalica1 Nov · Super Ligawin 38%
- at Podbrezová8 Nov · Super Ligawin 22%
- vs Slovan Bratislava21 Nov · Super Ligawin 21%
Žilina
- vs Dunajska Streda18 Oct · Super Ligawin 32%
- at FK Košice25 Oct · Super Ligawin 36%
- vs Zemplín Michalovce31 Oct · Super Ligawin 49%
- at Skalica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 42%
- vs Dukla Banská Bystrica21 Nov · Super Ligawin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.