UTC Cajamarca
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
Primera División prediction
Our model says: UTC Cajamarca 0–1 Deportivo Garcilaso
The model makes it 24% UTC Cajamarca, 27% draw, 49% Deportivo Garcilaso — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: UTC Cajamarca 0.95, Deportivo Garcilaso 1.61.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Deportivo Garcilaso are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- UTC Cajamarca are bottom on 15 points from 28 games; Deportivo Garcilaso are 3rd on 48 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- UTC Cajamarca have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sporting Cristal.
- Deportivo Garcilaso have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sport Huancayo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC Cajamarca.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Garcilaso at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
- L0-1Sporting Cristal11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sport Huancayo20 September 2026
- L1-2Juan Pablo II College11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Alianza Atletico4 September 2026
- L2-4Universitario29 August 2026
Deportivo Garcilaso
- L0-1Sport Huancayo10 October 2026
- W4-0Universitario19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys13 September 2026
- W4-2Atletico Grau6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alianza Lima30 August 2026
What these results say
- UTC Cajamarca did not win any of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 15 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
- 17 May 2026Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 26 September 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 0–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 3 May 2025UTC Cajamarca 2–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 13 July 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 26 January 2024UTC Cajamarca 1–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 3 September 2023UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Deportivo Garcilaso
GoalsAssists
- L. da Silva113
- C. Olivares72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
UTC Cajamarca carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.54 for Deportivo Garcilaso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.61 for Deportivo Garcilaso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
UTC Cajamarca rate 0.49 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Garcilaso rate 0.62 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives UTC Cajamarca a 0% chance of the title and Deportivo Garcilaso 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca against 1.61 for Deportivo Garcilaso. UTC Cajamarca's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.19 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
UTC Cajamarca at home · Deportivo Garcilaso away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: UTC Cajamarca 28, Deportivo Garcilaso 28.
UTC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Deportivo Garcilaso have let in 8 there.
Deportivo Garcilaso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); UTC Cajamarca have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
UTC Cajamarca
- at Sport Boys7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
- vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
Deportivo Garcilaso
- vs Comerciantes Unidos7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 55%
- at Juan Pablo II College14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.