Alianza Lima
vs
Atletico Grau
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Lima 1–0 Atletico Grau
The model makes it 55% Alianza Lima, 28% draw, 17% Atletico Grau — fair odds of 1.82, 3.57 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 1.58, Atletico Grau 0.66.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Alianza Lima: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Alianza Lima are top on 59 points from 28 games; Atletico Grau are 13th on 33 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Lima have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Cusco.
- Atletico Grau have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- Last 6 meetings: Alianza Lima 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Atletico Grau 0–1 Alianza Lima.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Lima at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
- W2-1away to Cusco11 October 2026
- W2-0ADT19 September 2026
- L1-2Universitario13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juan Pablo II College6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Garcilaso30 August 2026
Atletico Grau
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas8 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Cristal19 September 2026
- W3-1Alianza Atletico13 September 2026
- L2-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso6 September 2026
- W1-0FBC Melgar1 September 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Lima scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Grau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 46 | 19 | +27 | 59 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alianza Lima
Chance to finish top of the Primera Division: Tabla Anual · 98% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
- 26 April 2026Atletico Grau 0–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 2 October 2025Alianza Lima 2–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 10 May 2025Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 18 September 2024Atletico Grau 1–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 15 April 2024Alianza Lima 2–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 24 June 2023Alianza Lima 2–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo175
Atletico Grau
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alianza Lima carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.33 for Atletico Grau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.66 for Atletico Grau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alianza Lima rate 0.68 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Grau rate 0.49 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alianza Lima a 98.4% chance of the title and Atletico Grau 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Lima the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Alianza Lima against 0.66 for Atletico Grau. Alianza Lima's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.43 for Atletico Grau.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alianza Lima at home · Atletico Grau away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Lima 28, Atletico Grau 28.
Alianza Lima score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Atletico Grau have let in 5 there.
Atletico Grau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Alianza Lima have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Alianza Lima
- at UCV Moquegua25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 52%
- at Sporting Cristal28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Cienciano31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Club Deportivo Los Chankas7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs FC Cajamarca14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 65%
Atletico Grau
- vs ADT23 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- at Cienciano28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Universitario31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Cusco7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- at UCV Moquegua14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.