Alianza Atletico
vs
Universitario
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Atletico 2–1 Universitario
The model makes it 43% Alianza Atletico, 26% draw, 31% Universitario — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Alianza Atletico 1.75, Universitario 1.41.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Alianza Atletico are 7th on 43 points from 28 games; Universitario are 2nd on 50 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Atletico have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Sport Boys.
- Universitario have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FBC Melgar.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitario 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Universitario 1–2 Alianza Atletico.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Atletico vs Universitario
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Atletico at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alianza Atletico vs Universitario
Alianza Atletico
- W3-1away to Sport Boys11 October 2026
- W2-1Comerciantes Unidos18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Grau13 September 2026
- W3-2UTC Cajamarca4 September 2026
- W4-1away to UCV Moquegua30 August 2026
Universitario
- D2-2FBC Melgar11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alianza Lima13 September 2026
- D2-2Comerciantes Unidos6 September 2026
- W4-2away to UTC Cajamarca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Atletico scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Atletico conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Alianza Atletico had three goals or more.
- Universitario conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universitario had three goals or more.
- Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 36 | +7 | 43 |
| 2 | Universitario | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alianza Atletico
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Universitario
Chance to finish in the top four · 88% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Alianza Atletico vs Universitario
- 26 April 2026Universitario 1–2 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 1 October 2025Alianza Atletico 0–2 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 11 May 2025Universitario 0–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 15 September 2024Alianza Atletico 0–3 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 6 April 2024Universitario 1–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 4 July 2023Universitario 2–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Atletico and Universitario
Alianza Atletico
GoalsAssists
- C. Penilla84
Universitario
GoalsAssists
- A. Valera162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alianza Atletico carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.47 for Universitario. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.41 for Universitario. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alianza Atletico rate 0.70 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitario rate 0.72 and 1.54.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universitario, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alianza Atletico a 0% chance of the title and Universitario 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Atletico the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Alianza Atletico against 1.41 for Universitario. Alianza Atletico's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.54 for Universitario.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alianza Atletico at home · Universitario away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Atletico 28, Universitario 28.
Alianza Atletico score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Universitario have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Alianza Atletico
- at Sport Huancayo24 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Deportivo Garcilaso28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Juan Pablo II College31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 53%
- at FC Cajamarca7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
- vs FBC Melgar14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
Universitario
- vs Juan Pablo II College25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 55%
- vs Sport Boys28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- at Atletico Grau31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs UCV Moquegua7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 64%
- at Sport Huancayo14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.