FC Cajamarca
vs
UCV Moquegua
Primera División prediction
Our model says: FC Cajamarca 2–1 UCV Moquegua
The model makes it 54% FC Cajamarca, 25% draw, 21% UCV Moquegua — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Cajamarca 1.95, UCV Moquegua 1.05.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FC Cajamarca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Cajamarca are 15th on 28 points from 28 games; UCV Moquegua are 17th on 25 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- FC Cajamarca have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to ADT.
- UCV Moquegua have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Cienciano.
- Last 5 meetings: UCV Moquegua 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended UCV Moquegua 2–1 FC Cajamarca.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Cajamarca at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
- D0-0away to ADT10 October 2026
- L1-2Cusco19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas12 September 2026
- L2-5Cienciano4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Comerciantes Unidos28 August 2026
UCV Moquegua
- L0-2Cienciano8 October 2026
- L0-4away to Juan Pablo II College20 September 2026
- L1-2Sporting Cristal13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cusco5 September 2026
- L1-4Alianza Atletico30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Cajamarca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Cajamarca had three goals or more.
- UCV Moquegua did not win any of these 5 matches.
- UCV Moquegua conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 28 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Cajamarca
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
UCV Moquegua
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 87% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua
- 25 April 2026UCV Moquegua 2–1 FC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 2 November 2025FC Cajamarca 2–0 UCV MoqueguaSegunda División
- 26 October 2025UCV Moquegua 2–1 FC CajamarcaSegunda División
- 6 September 2025FC Cajamarca 2–1 UCV MoqueguaSegunda División
- 2 August 2025UCV Moquegua 2–0 FC CajamarcaSegunda División
Leading scorers: FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
GoalsAssists
- M. Arrasco75
- B. Palacios73
UCV Moquegua
GoalsAssists
- E. Lastre85
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Cajamarca carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.1 for UCV Moquegua. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for FC Cajamarca and 1.05 for UCV Moquegua. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cajamarca rate 0.65 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; UCV Moquegua rate 0.40 and 1.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Cajamarca the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Cajamarca against 1.05 for UCV Moquegua. FC Cajamarca's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.84 for UCV Moquegua.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Cajamarca at home · UCV Moquegua away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: FC Cajamarca 28, UCV Moquegua 28.
FC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); UCV Moquegua have let in 12 there.
UCV Moquegua score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); FC Cajamarca have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Cajamarca
- at Sport Boys25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- vs UTC Cajamarca28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 55%
- at Sporting Cristal31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
- vs Alianza Atletico7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Alianza Lima14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 14%
UCV Moquegua
- vs Alianza Lima25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 20%
- at ADT28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Universitario7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 14%
- vs Atletico Grau14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.