Comerciantes Unidos
vs
ADT
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 ADT
The model makes it 50% Comerciantes Unidos, 27% draw, 23% ADT — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Comerciantes Unidos 1.63, ADT 0.93.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Comerciantes Unidos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Comerciantes Unidos are 14th on 31 points from 28 games; ADT are 16th on 26 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Comerciantes Unidos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Juan Pablo II College.
- ADT have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- Last 5 meetings: ADT 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended ADT 2–0 Comerciantes Unidos.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Comerciantes Unidos at 50% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
- D1-1Juan Pablo II College10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Alianza Atletico18 September 2026
- L0-1Sport Huancayo12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Universitario6 September 2026
- L2-3FC Cajamarca28 August 2026
ADT
- L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026
- D0-0FC Cajamarca10 October 2026
- W2-1Cienciano23 September 2026
- L0-2away to Alianza Lima19 September 2026
- L0-3away to FBC Melgar6 September 2026
What these results say
- Comerciantes Unidos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 |
| 16 | ADT | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
- 17 May 2026ADT 2–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 23 November 2025Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 ADTPrimera División
- 11 July 2025ADT 1–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 28 October 2024Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 ADTPrimera División
- 19 May 2024ADT 2–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
Leading scorers: Comerciantes Unidos and ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
GoalsAssists
- M. Sen92
ADT
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Comerciantes Unidos carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.16 for ADT. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.93 for ADT. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Comerciantes Unidos rate 0.55 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ADT rate 0.45 and 1.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Comerciantes Unidos the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos against 0.93 for ADT. Comerciantes Unidos's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.82 for ADT.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Comerciantes Unidos at home · ADT away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Comerciantes Unidos 28, ADT 29.
Comerciantes Unidos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); ADT have let in 8 there.
ADT score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Comerciantes Unidos have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Comerciantes Unidos
- at Deportivo Garcilaso7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Sport Boys14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
ADT
- vs Sporting Cristal7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 27%
- at Cusco14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.