Shams Azar Qazvin
vs
Sanat Naft
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Shams Azar Qazvin 1–0 Sanat Naft
The model makes it 51% Shams Azar Qazvin, 27% draw, 22% Sanat Naft — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Shams Azar Qazvin 1.72, Sanat Naft 0.96.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
Edge to Shams Azar Qazvin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Shams Azar Qazvin's rating is built from 32 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Sanat Naft's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Shams Azar Qazvin are 14th on 7 points from 9 games; Sanat Naft are 16th on 7 points from 9 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Shams Azar Qazvin have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Sepahan FC.
- Sanat Naft have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Aluminium Arak.
- Last 3 meetings: Sanat Naft 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2024, ended Sanat Naft 2–2 Shams Azar Qazvin.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shams Azar Qazvin at 51% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft
Shams Azar Qazvin
- D0-0Sepahan FC18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
- L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chadormalu SC6 September 2026
- D0-0Tractor Sazi1 September 2026
Sanat Naft
- W2-1Aluminium Arak17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Persepolis FC9 October 2026
- L1-2Chadormalu SC12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Paykan6 September 2026
- D0-0Sepahan FC2 September 2026
What these results say
- Shams Azar Qazvin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.
- Sanat Naft failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sanat Naft conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft
- 24 May 2024Sanat Naft 2–2 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 December 2023Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 20 December 2021Sanat Naft 3–1 Shams Azar QazvinHazfi Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shams Azar Qazvin carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.17 for Sanat Naft. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Shams Azar Qazvin and 0.96 for Sanat Naft. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shams Azar Qazvin rate 0.54 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sanat Naft rate 0.50 and 1.96.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shams Azar Qazvin the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shams Azar Qazvin against 0.96 for Sanat Naft. Shams Azar Qazvin's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.96 for Sanat Naft.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shams Azar Qazvin at home · Sanat Naft away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Shams Azar Qazvin 9, Sanat Naft 9.
Shams Azar Qazvin score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sanat Naft have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.