Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Ararat-Armenia.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Universitatea Craiova, 24% draw, 17% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 59% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia
Line-ups
- 21L. PopescuG
- 3O. RomanchukD
- 28A. RusD
- 6V. ScreciuD
- 17C. MoraM
- 5A. MekvabishviliM
- 20A. CicaldauM
- 11N. BancuM
- 30D. MateiM
- 9A. Al HamlawiF
- 10S. BaiaramF
- 1A. MaximG
- 4A. CretuM
- 7S. NsimbaF
- 8T. BalutaM
- 12M. EtimF
- 18M. RadulescuM
- 19Heriberto TavaresF
- 23TelesM
- 24N. StevanovicD
- 98Joao Bravim
- 3Junior JulioD
- 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
- 47A. MalisD
- 16E. GrigoryanD
- 2H. OliveiraD
- 70BennyM
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 77A. SerobyanM
- 91Sandro LimaF
- 11Z. BanjaquiM
- 1A. NersesyanG
- 5Luis FelipeD
- 6M. AyvazyanM
- 7Z. ShaghoyanM
- 8J. A. BalantaM
- 9A. EloyanF
- 14B. PereiraD
- 17M. CarlierM
- 20A. TeraM
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia
Universitatea Craiova
- D1-1away to Oțelul16 August 2026
- W2-1KuPS13 August 2026
- L0-1Arges Pitesti9 August 2026
- D1-1away to KuPS6 August 2026
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
Ararat-Armenia
- L0-2away to Celje11 August 2026
- W2-1Celje4 August 2026
- L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers21 July 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Craiova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ararat-Armenia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ararat-Armenia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Universitatea Craiova and Ararat-Armenia in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | Liga I | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 20 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Liga I · UEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Ararat-Armenia
Universitatea Craiova
- A. Al Hamlawi4 goals
- S. Elisor4 goals
Ararat-Armenia
- Bruno Wilson1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.