Universitatea Craiova
vs
Ararat-Armenia
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 73% Universitatea Craiova, 17% draw, 10% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.49, Ararat-Armenia 0.84.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Universitatea Craiova
- L0-1Arges Pitesti9 August 2026
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Ararat-Armenia
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
The two sides
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.18 for Ararat-Armenia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Universitatea Craiova W-L-W-L; Ararat-Armenia L-W-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.49 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.84 for Ararat-Armenia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.72 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ararat-Armenia rate 0.48 and 1.83.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.84 for Ararat-Armenia. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.83 for Ararat-Armenia.