St. Truiden
vs
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 69% St. Truiden, 17% draw, 14% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: St. Truiden 2.63, Omonia Nicosia 1.13.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
St. Truiden
- D1-1Lommel United8 August 2026
Omonia Nicosia
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
The two sides
St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.61 for Omonia Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): St. Truiden D; Omonia Nicosia W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.63 goals for St. Truiden and 1.13 for Omonia Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Truiden rate 1.01 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Nicosia rate 0.85 and 1.38.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for St. Truiden against 1.13 for Omonia Nicosia. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.38 for Omonia Nicosia.