27 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ararat-Armenia vs Universitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Universitatea Craiova.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Ararat-Armenia, 23% draw, 50% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 3.70, 4.35 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Universitatea Craiova at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ararat-Armenia4%Draw90%Universitatea Craiova6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

48'
Nicușor Bancu
62'
🔁T. Balutaout: Teles
🔁Bennyout: Franca Carlos
70'
72'
🔁A. Al Hamlawiout: S. Nsimba
🔁A. Serobyanout: J. A. Balanta
77'
🔁Z. Banjaquiout: Z. Shaghoyan
77'
Bruno Wilson
80'
89'
🔁S. Baiaramout: M. Etim
⚽Sandro Lima (pen)
90+8'
Sandro Lima
90+10'
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
90+9'
90+7'
Samuel Teles
90+3'
Steven Nsimba
🔁H. Oliveiraout: A. Tera
90+2'
🔁K. Muradyanout: M. Carlier
90+2'
⚽Sandro Lima
90'

Match stats — Ararat-Armenia vs Universitatea Craiova

49%Possession51%
2On target7
3Corners7

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia 4-3-3
  • 98Joao Bravim
  • 3Junior Julio
  • 47A. MalisD
  • 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
  • 16E. GrigoryanD
  • 2H. OliveiraM
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 70BennyM
  • 77A. SerobyanF
  • 91Sandro LimaF
  • 11Z. BanjaquiF
Substitutes
  • 1A. NersesyanG
  • 14B. PereiraD
  • 5Luis FelipeD
  • 20A. TeraM
  • 17M. CarlierM
  • 8J. A. BalantaM
  • 6M. AyvazyanM
  • 25A. NdourF
  • 9A. EloyanF
Coach: Tulipa
Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3
  • 21L. PopescuG
  • 3O. RomanchukD
  • 24N. StevanovicD
  • 6V. ScreciuD
  • 17C. MoraM
  • 8T. BalutaM
  • 5A. MekvabishviliM
  • 11N. BancuM
  • 20A. CicaldauF
  • 9A. Al HamlawiF
  • 10S. BaiaramF
Substitutes
  • 90R. SavaG
  • 1A. MaximG
  • 31R. WebsterD
  • 4A. CretuM
  • 23TelesM
  • 29L. BasceanuM
  • 30D. MateiM
  • 19Heriberto TavaresF
  • 7S. NsimbaF
Coach: Filipe Coelho

Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Universitatea Craiova

Ararat-Armenia

  • D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova20 August 2026

Universitatea Craiova

  • W3-1FC Voluntari23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ararat-Armenia and Universitatea Craiova in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
33Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Europa League100114-30
3Universitatea CraiovaLiga I10622249+1520

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Liga I

Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia vs Universitatea Craiova

  • 20 August 2026Universitatea Craiova 1–1 Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Europa League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Ararat-Armenia and Universitatea Craiova

Ararat-Armenia

  • Bruno Wilson1 goal

Universitatea Craiova

  • A. Al Hamlawi4 goals
  • S. Elisor4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.