Aldosivi
vs
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 44% Aldosivi, 24% draw, 32% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aldosivi 1.82, Union Santa Fe 1.52.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Aldosivi
No earlier matches on record this season.
Union Santa Fe
- W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba12 May 2026
- W2-1away to Independiente Rivadavia10 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Aldosivi
No league goals recorded yet.
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aldosivi carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.54 for Union Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Aldosivi D-D-L-L-L; Union Santa Fe W-L-D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Aldosivi and 1.52 for Union Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aldosivi rate 0.67 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Santa Fe rate 0.77 and 1.44.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aldosivi the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Aldosivi against 1.52 for Union Santa Fe. Aldosivi's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.44 for Union Santa Fe.