21 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Mar del Plata
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Aldosivi 1-3 Union Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aldosivi, 29% draw, 29% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aldosivi at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aldosivi0%Draw1%Union Santa Fe99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Vombergarassist: A. Sosa
18'
45+2'
Juan Pintado
51'
⚽L. Menossiassist: M. Estigarribia
62'
⚽C. Tarragona
64'
⚽C. Tarragonaassist: M. Luna Diale
🔁L. Castroout: F. Perruzzi
66'
🔁A. Chavezout: N. Cordero
66'
Elías López
71'
🔁M. Valesout: M. Garcia
73'
🔁N. Gaitanout: B. Dadin
73'
Juan Bautista Dadín
75'
80'
🔁M. Estigarribiaout: E. Ramirez
Néstor Breitenbruch
82'
🔁A. Vombergarout: N. Guzman
82'
85'
Julián Palacios
85'
•Julián Palacios
86'
🔁C. Tarragonaout: B. Cuello
90+2'
🔁J. Pintadoout: M. Rocha

Match stats — Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe

43%Possession57%
13Shots18
4On target7
4Corners4
0.36xG1.54

Goals against chances

Aldosivi1 from 0.36 xGmore than the chances were worth
Union Santa Fe3 from 1.54 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aldosivi 4-2-3-1
  • 42L. AcostaG
  • 14E. LopezD
  • 25N. BreitenbruchD
  • 32J. PomboD
  • 38M. ValesD
  • 19L. CastroM
  • 22A. SosaM
  • 29A. VombergarM
  • 10N. GaitanM
  • 21M. GodoyM
  • 18A. ChavezF
Substitutes
  • 23I. ChiccoG
  • 13B. CufreD
  • 28S. MoyaD
  • 33N. ZalazarD
  • 4R. GonzalezD
  • 15F. PerruzziM
  • 8M. Garcia
  • 16B. DadinF
  • 9N. CorderoF
Coach: Israel Damonte
Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 2M. RodriguezD
  • 26J. LuduenaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 11M. Luna DialeM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
  • 19M. EstigarribiaF
Substitutes
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 4M. RochaD
  • 12B. PittonD
  • 44T. FagioliD
  • 32N. GarciaD
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 29S. VeraM
  • 46S. GrellaM
  • 34M. PeresuttiM
Coach: Leonardo Madelon

Form going into Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe

Aldosivi

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Tigre15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Rosario Central7 August 2026
  • L1-2Gimnasia La Plata2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Barracas Central29 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Defensa Y Justicia24 July 2026

Union Santa Fe

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
  • L1-2Central Cordoba de Santiago11 August 2026
  • W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Aldosivi did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Aldosivi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Union Santa Fe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Aldosivi1632111626-1011
9Union Santa Fe166372424021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe

  • 23 February 2026Union Santa Fe 1–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 October 2025Union Santa Fe 0–2 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 27 March 2025Aldosivi 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 August 2022Union Santa Fe 0–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 October 2021Aldosivi 1–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 January 2021Aldosivi 1–3 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe record →

Leading scorers: Aldosivi and Union Santa Fe

Aldosivi

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Union Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tarragona172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union Santa Fe won 3–1 at Aldosivi. The model had leaned towards a win for Aldosivi at 42% and given a win for Union Santa Fe 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Vombergar 18' for Aldosivi, L. Menossi 51' for Union Santa Fe, C. Tarragona 62' for Union Santa Fe, C. Tarragona 64' for Union Santa Fe. Sent off: Julián Palacios (Union Santa Fe) 85'. On expected goals it finished 0.36–1.54.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.