Lech Poznan vs FC Thun UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 74% Lech Poznan, 15% draw, 11% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 74% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs FC Thun
Line-ups
- 1M. LisG
- 2J. PereiraD
- 27W. MonkaD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 43A. KozubalM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 10P. WalemarkM
- 21P. RodriguezM
- 77L. PalmaM
- 17A. SayyadmaneshM
- 41B. MrozekG
- 35M. PruchniewskiG
- 59T. YegbeD
- 20R. GumnyD
- 3A. DouglasD
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 53K. DelikatM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 56W. Szymczak
- 1N. SteffenG
- 47F. FehrD
- 19J. BamertD
- 23M. BurkiD
- 27M. HeuleD
- 70N. ReichmuthM
- 16J. RothM
- 13N. ZoukitM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 33M. GutbubF
- 96B. LabeauF
- 25T. SpycherG
- 22D. WaltiG
- 5N. BurgyD
- 17A. BalarubanD
- 37L. DahlerD
- 18T. StrannegardD
- 8F. SaizM
- 21D. DerbaciM
- 80S. LengenF
Form going into Lech Poznan vs FC Thun
Lech Poznan
- W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
FC Thun
- L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Lech Poznan and FC Thun in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Lech Poznan | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Thun | Super League | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Super League
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and FC Thun
Lech Poznan
No league goals yet this season.
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.