OFI
vs
CSKA Sofia
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 63% OFI, 25% draw, 12% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 1.59, 4.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: OFI 1.59, CSKA Sofia 0.53.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
OFI
No earlier matches on record this season.
CSKA Sofia
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | First League | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. OFI has not started the league season yet. Full tables
The two sides
OFI carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.28 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): CSKA Sofia D-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for OFI and 0.53 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OFI rate 0.69 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.31 and 1.22.
That points to 35% for over two and a half goals and 33% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (19%), 2-0 (15%), 0-0 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OFI the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for OFI against 0.53 for CSKA Sofia. OFI's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/1.22 for CSKA Sofia.