Atletico Grau
vs
Cusco
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Atletico Grau 1–0 Cusco
The model makes it 36% Atletico Grau, 30% draw, 34% Cusco — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Grau 1.25, Cusco 1.20.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: Atletico Grau and Cusco are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Atletico Grau's rating is built from 65 Primera División (Peru) matches and Cusco's from 67, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Atletico Grau are 13th on 33 points from 29 games; Cusco are 7th on 45 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Atletico Grau are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to ADT.
- Cusco have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sport Huancayo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Cusco 1–0 Atletico Grau.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Grau vs Cusco
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Grau at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Grau vs Cusco
Atletico Grau
Primera División
- D1-1ADT23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Alianza Lima18 October 2026
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas8 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Cristal19 September 2026
- W3-1Alianza Atletico13 September 2026
Cusco
Primera División
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo16 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Lima11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Cajamarca19 September 2026
- L0-1FBC Melgar12 September 2026
- W2-0UCV Moquegua5 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Grau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Grau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Grau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cusco scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cusco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 33 |
| 7 | Cusco | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Grau vs Cusco
- 23 May 2026Cusco 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 25 October 2025Cusco 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 19 June 2025Atletico Grau 0–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 7 March 2025Atletico Grau 0–0 CuscoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 28 October 2024Cusco 0–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 17 May 2024Atletico Grau 4–0 CuscoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Atletico Grau and Cusco
Atletico Grau
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Grau carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.41 for Cusco. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Atletico Grau and 1.20 for Cusco. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Grau rate 0.48 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cusco rate 0.66 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cusco, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Grau the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Atletico Grau against 1.20 for Cusco. Atletico Grau's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.6 for Cusco.
How the model reaches 36% for Atletico Grau to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Grau to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Atletico Grau's ratings take away 26 points and Cusco's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Atletico Grau's ratings18%−26
- Cusco's ratings36%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Grau at home · Cusco away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Atletico Grau 29, Cusco 29.
Atletico Grau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Cusco have let in 4 there.
Cusco score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); Atletico Grau have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Atletico Grau
- at UCV Moquegua14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
Cusco
- vs ADT14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.