FC Cajamarca
vs
Alianza Atletico
Primera División prediction
Our model says: FC Cajamarca 1–2 Alianza Atletico
The model makes it 37% FC Cajamarca, 25% draw, 38% Alianza Atletico — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Cajamarca 1.72, Alianza Atletico 1.75.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Cajamarca's rating is built from 29 Primera División (Peru) matches and Alianza Atletico's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Cajamarca are 15th on 28 points from 29 games; Alianza Atletico are 9th on 43 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- FC Cajamarca are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to UCV Moquegua.
- Alianza Atletico have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Universitario.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Atletico at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico
FC Cajamarca
Primera División
- L0-1UCV Moquegua18 October 2026
- D0-0away to ADT10 October 2026
- L1-2Cusco19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas12 September 2026
- L2-5Cienciano4 September 2026
Alianza Atletico
Primera División
- L1-4Universitario18 October 2026
- W3-1away to Sport Boys11 October 2026
- W2-1Comerciantes Unidos18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Grau13 September 2026
- W3-2UTC Cajamarca4 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Cajamarca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Atletico scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Atletico conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Alianza Atletico had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 28 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico
- 24 May 2026Alianza Atletico 1–1 FC CajamarcaPrimera División
Leading scorers: FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico
FC Cajamarca
GoalsAssists
- M. Arrasco75
- B. Palacios73
Alianza Atletico
GoalsAssists
- C. Penilla85
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Cajamarca carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.38 for Alianza Atletico. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for FC Cajamarca and 1.75 for Alianza Atletico. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cajamarca rate 0.60 in attack and 2.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Atletico rate 0.68 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Atletico the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Cajamarca against 1.75 for Alianza Atletico. FC Cajamarca's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.76 for Alianza Atletico.
How the model reaches 38% for Alianza Atletico to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Alianza Atletico to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, FC Cajamarca's ratings add 37 points and Alianza Atletico's ratings take away 28 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- FC Cajamarca's ratings66%+37
- Alianza Atletico's ratings38%−28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Cajamarca at home · Alianza Atletico away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: FC Cajamarca 29, Alianza Atletico 29.
FC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Alianza Atletico have let in 8 there.
Alianza Atletico score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); FC Cajamarca have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
FC Cajamarca
- at Alianza Lima14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 14%
Alianza Atletico
- vs FBC Melgar14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.