Club Deportivo Los Chankas
vs
Alianza Lima
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Alianza Lima
The model makes it 24% Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 28% draw, 48% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 4.17, 3.57 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0.98, Alianza Lima 1.60.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
One-sided: Alianza Lima are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Club Deportivo Los Chankas's rating is built from 64 Primera División (Peru) matches and Alianza Lima's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas are 6th on 46 points from 29 games; Alianza Lima are top on 62 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to ADT.
- Alianza Lima are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Atletico Grau.
- Last 5 meetings: Alianza Lima 5 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Alianza Lima 3–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Lima at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Primera División
- W2-1ADT16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Grau8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cienciano30 September 2026
- L1-2FC Cajamarca12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Sporting Cristal6 September 2026
Alianza Lima
Primera División
- W3-1Atletico Grau18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Cusco11 October 2026
- W2-0ADT19 September 2026
- L1-2Universitario13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juan Pablo II College6 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Alianza Lima.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 46 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 20 | +29 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
- 24 May 2026Alianza Lima 3–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
- 5 November 2025Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–2 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 19 April 2025Alianza Lima 1–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
- 24 August 2024Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 29 March 2024Alianza Lima 3–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
Leading scorers: Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
GoalsAssists
- F. Torres95
- J. Quintero71
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo185
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club Deportivo Los Chankas carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.61 for Alianza Lima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.60 for Alianza Lima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas rate 0.53 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Lima rate 0.69 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Deportivo Los Chankas a 0% chance of the title and Alianza Lima 99%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Lima the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas against 1.60 for Alianza Lima. Club Deportivo Los Chankas's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.14 for Alianza Lima.
How the model reaches 48% for Alianza Lima to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Alianza Lima to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Club Deportivo Los Chankas's ratings add 35 points and Alianza Lima's ratings take away 16 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas's ratings64%+35
- Alianza Lima's ratings48%−16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home · Alianza Lima away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 29, Alianza Lima 29.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Alianza Lima have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- at UTC Cajamarca14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
Alianza Lima
- vs FC Cajamarca14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.