Union St. Gilloise
vs
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 62% Union St. Gilloise, 19% draw, 19% Zulte Waregem — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.40, Zulte Waregem 1.28.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Union St. Gilloise
- W5-1away to KVC Westerlo8 August 2026
Zulte Waregem
- W2-1Genk9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
Where they stand. Zulte Waregem has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem
- 20 December 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 3 December 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Zulte WaregemCup
- 1 November 2025Zulte Waregem 1–4 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 5 February 2023Union St. Gilloise 4–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 4 September 2022Zulte Waregem 1–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 15 December 2021Zulte Waregem 0–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers
Union St. Gilloise
- P. David1 goals1 assists
- Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho1 goals
- D. Olaru1 goals
Zulte Waregem
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Union St. Gilloise carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.71 for Zulte Waregem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Union St. Gilloise W; Zulte Waregem W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.28 for Zulte Waregem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union St. Gilloise rate 0.96 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zulte Waregem rate 0.98 and 1.32.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.4 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 1.28 for Zulte Waregem. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 0.96/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.32 for Zulte Waregem.