Cercle Brugge
vs
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 56% Cercle Brugge, 22% draw, 22% St. Truiden — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cercle Brugge 2.02, St. Truiden 1.22.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cercle Brugge
- D2-2away to Standard Liege8 August 2026
St. Truiden
- D1-1Lommel United8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cercle Brugge | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden
- 8 March 2026St. Truiden 2–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 29 August 2025Cercle Brugge 1–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 26 April 2025Cercle Brugge 3–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 12 April 2025St. Truiden 3–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 27 December 2024St. Truiden 1–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 4 December 2024Cercle Brugge 0–1 St. TruidenCup
Leading scorers
Cercle Brugge
- L. Mondele1 goals
- C. Ravych1 goals
St. Truiden
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cercle Brugge carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.78 for St. Truiden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Cercle Brugge D; St. Truiden D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.22 for St. Truiden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cercle Brugge rate 1.02 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Truiden rate 0.92 and 1.05.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cercle Brugge the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Cercle Brugge against 1.22 for St. Truiden. Cercle Brugge's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.05 for St. Truiden.