Cukaricki
vs
OFK Beograd
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 59% Cukaricki, 21% draw, 20% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Cukaricki 2.24, OFK Beograd 1.24.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cukaricki
- W3-0Radnicki 19231 August 2026
- W2-0away to Radnicki NIS25 July 2026
- L0-1IMT Novi Beograd19 July 2026
OFK Beograd
- W4-1away to Novi Pazar1 August 2026
- D0-0Radnik Surdulica25 July 2026
- L0-4away to Vojvodina19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cukaricki | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 7 | OFK Beograd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Cukaricki
- U. Miladinović3 goals1 assists
OFK Beograd
- Y. Silue2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cukaricki carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.33 for OFK Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Cukaricki L-W-W; OFK Beograd L-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Cukaricki and 1.24 for OFK Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cukaricki rate 0.74 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFK Beograd rate 0.57 and 1.60.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cukaricki the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Cukaricki against 1.24 for OFK Beograd. Cukaricki's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.6 for OFK Beograd.