OH Leuven
vs
Club Brugge KV
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 27% OH Leuven, 20% draw, 53% Club Brugge KV — fair odds of 3.70, 5.00 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: OH Leuven 1.69, Club Brugge KV 2.38.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
OH Leuven
- L1-3away to Charleroi9 August 2026
Club Brugge KV
- W3-0Kortrijk7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
Where they stand. OH Leuven has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Leading scorers
OH Leuven
No league goals recorded yet.
Club Brugge KV
- H. Vetlesen1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
OH Leuven carry a model rating of 6.76 against 7.1 for Club Brugge KV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): OH Leuven L; Club Brugge KV W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for OH Leuven and 2.38 for Club Brugge KV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OH Leuven rate 0.92 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Brugge KV rate 1.53 and 0.97.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Brugge KV the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for OH Leuven against 2.38 for Club Brugge KV. OH Leuven's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.53/0.97 for Club Brugge KV.