KV Mechelen
vs
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: KV Mechelen 1–2 St. Truiden
The model makes it 30% KV Mechelen, 28% draw, 42% St. Truiden — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: KV Mechelen 1.23, St. Truiden 1.67.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
KV Mechelen
- D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026
- L0-1Anderlecht11 September 2026
- L0-4KVC Westerlo5 September 2026
- D2-2away to RAAL La Louvière29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Charleroi22 August 2026
St. Truiden
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
- W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
What these results say
- KV Mechelen did not win any of these 5 matches.
- KV Mechelen failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- KV Mechelen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | KV Mechelen | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 11 | St. Truiden | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
- 24 May 2026St. Truiden 3–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 26 April 2026KV Mechelen 1–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 21 December 2025St. Truiden 1–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 4 October 2025KV Mechelen 1–3 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 21 February 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 8 November 2024St. Truiden 2–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KV Mechelen and St. Truiden
KV Mechelen
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
St. Truiden
- S. Baždar4 goals
- R. Merlen3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
KV Mechelen carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.81 for St. Truiden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for KV Mechelen and 1.67 for St. Truiden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KV Mechelen rate 0.71 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Truiden rate 0.99 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for KV Mechelen against 1.67 for St. Truiden. KV Mechelen's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.07 for St. Truiden.