11 October 2026, 17:15 UTC

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Achter de Kazerne, Mechelen
Referee: B. Verbeke
Full time4 – 3

Final score: KV Mechelen 4-3 St. Truiden.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% KV Mechelen, 27% draw, 44% St. Truiden — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
K. Takai
⚽K. Takai (OG)
24'
⚽S. Michez
34'
⚽S. Taniguchi (OG)
39'
42'
K. Matsuzawa
44'
⚽S. Bazdarassist: R. Merlen
46'
🔁K. Matsuzawaout: N. Ishiwatari
46'
🔁R. Arakiout: N. Mbuku
49'
⚽I. Sebaoui
M. Decherf
53'
⚽B. Ramanassist: K. Corbanie
62'
🔁B. Ramanout: C. Van Meirvenne
63'
67'
🔁S. Bazdarout: F. Soelle
67'
🔁R. Merlenout: S. Shinkawa
71'
⚽F. Soelle
🔁M. Eerdhuijzenout: L. Marijnissen
81'
🔁M. Decherfout: D. Praet
81'
🔁T. Koudouout: B. Antonio
81'
🔁B. Boersmaout: M. Lohunanu-Mbasi
81'
84'
N. Ishiwatari
88'
S. Taniguchi
F. Hammar
90+5'

Match stats — KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

36%Possession64%
8Shots17
3On target7
2Corners8
0.74xG1.43

Goals against chances

KV Mechelen4 from 0.74 xGmore than the chances were worth
St. Truiden3 from 1.43 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KV Mechelen 3-4-2-1
  • 13N. MirasG
  • 20K. CorbanieD
  • 44M. EerdhuijzenD
  • 3J. MarsaD
  • 23S. MichezM
  • 6F. HammarM
  • 30M. DecherfM
  • 7T. KoudouM
  • 14B. RamanF
  • 9M. van BrederodeF
  • 28B. BoersmaF
Substitutes
  • 1O. De WolfG
  • 15T. Van IngelgomG
  • 2L. MarijnissenD
  • 4G. DioufD
  • 10M. KireevM
  • 26D. PraetM
  • 29B. AntonioF
  • 21H. OzdemirF
  • 17C. Van MeirvenneF
Coach: Frederic Vanderbiest
St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 4K. TakaiD
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaM
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 9S. BazdarF
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 35Y. NgoyG
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 11N. MbukuF
  • 19F. SoelleF
  • 99S. ShinkawaM

Form going into KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

KV Mechelen

Jupiler Pro League

  • D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026

St. Truiden

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11KV Mechelen113351320-712
12St. Truiden113262222011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

  • 24 May 2026St. Truiden 3–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 26 April 2026KV Mechelen 1–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 21 December 2025St. Truiden 1–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 4 October 2025KV Mechelen 1–3 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 21 February 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: KV Mechelen and St. Truiden

KV Mechelen

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

St. Truiden

GoalsAssists

  • S. Baždar50
  • I. Sebaoui43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KV Mechelen beat St. Truiden 4–3. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Truiden at 44% and given a win for KV Mechelen 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: K. Takai (own goal) 24' for KV Mechelen, S. Michez 34' for KV Mechelen, S. Taniguchi (own goal) 39' for KV Mechelen, S. Bazdar 44' for St. Truiden, I. Sebaoui 49' for St. Truiden, B. Raman 62' for KV Mechelen, F. Soelle 71' for St. Truiden. On expected goals it finished 0.74–1.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KV Mechelen a 42.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.9% after a win, 44.4% after a draw, 46.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.9%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.

For St. Truiden the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.5% going in: 10.2% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.8%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on KV Mechelen v St. Truiden has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 27% / 44%: the biggest move is St. Truiden's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. KV Mechelen win29%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. St. Truiden win44%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.