Puszcza Niepołomice
vs
Polonia Bytom
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Polonia Bytom
The model makes it 43% Puszcza Niepołomice, 28% draw, 29% Polonia Bytom — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Puszcza Niepołomice 1.69, Polonia Bytom 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Puszcza Niepołomice are bottom on 6 points from 8 games; Polonia Bytom are 15th on 9 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Warta Poznań.
- Polonia Bytom are unbeaten in their last 5 (0 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Ruch Chorzów.
- Last 3 meetings: Puszcza Niepołomice 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Polonia Bytom.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puszcza Niepołomice at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom
Puszcza Niepołomice
- L2-3away to Warta Poznań18 September 2026
- L1-2ŁKS Łódź11 September 2026
- W2-0Podbeskidzie29 August 2026
- L0-1Unia Skierniewice23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arka Gdynia17 August 2026
Polonia Bytom
- D0-0Ruch Chorzów18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Warszawa11 September 2026
- D0-0Podbeskidzie6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia30 August 2026
- D2-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki22 August 2026
What these results say
- Puszcza Niepołomice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Polonia Bytom | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom
- 18 April 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Polonia BytomI Liga
- 4 October 2025Polonia Bytom 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 6 July 2024Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Polonia BytomFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Puszcza Niepołomice carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.23 for Polonia Bytom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.19 for Polonia Bytom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puszcza Niepołomice rate 0.50 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polonia Bytom rate 0.59 and 2.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Polonia Bytom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 0.1% chance of the title and Polonia Bytom 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puszcza Niepołomice the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.19 for Polonia Bytom. Puszcza Niepołomice's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.08 for Polonia Bytom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Puszcza Niepołomice at home · Polonia Bytom away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Puszcza Niepołomice 8, Polonia Bytom 9.
Puszcza Niepołomice score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Polonia Bytom have let in 5 there.
Polonia Bytom score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Puszcza Niepołomice have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Puszcza Niepołomice
- at Pogoń Siedlce15 Oct · I Ligawin 30%
- at Nieciecza19 Oct · I Ligawin 23%
- vs Lechia Gdansk24 Oct · I Ligawin 31%
- at Stal Rzeszów2 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- vs Miedz Legnica7 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
Polonia Bytom
- vs Chrobry Głogów17 Oct · I Ligawin 36%
- at Unia Skierniewice24 Oct · I Ligawin 34%
- vs Odra Opole2 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- vs Lechia Gdansk7 Nov · I Ligawin 30%
- at Stal Rzeszów21 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.