11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Standard Liege vs Charleroi Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Maurice Dufrasnestadion
Referee: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Standard Liege, 28% draw, 35% Charleroi — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Standard Liege at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Standard Liege0%Draw4%Charleroi96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ibe Hautekiet
36'
45'
Amine Boukamir
58'
⚽C. Keitaassist: P. Pflucke
🔁C. Nielsenout: A. Zeqiri
65'
🔁B. Ngueneout: S. Drammeh
65'
71'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: T. Rowe
🔁D. Eckertout: B. Nsimba
77'
77'
🔁A. Boukamirout: I. Cisse
77'
🔁F. Mbembaout: G. Nawata
🔁A. Trouilletout: M. Ilaimaharitra
84'
🔁R. Touzgharout: R. Fosso
84'
86'
🔁J. Romsaasout: M. Sow
Gustav Mortensen
90+6'

Match stats — Standard Liege vs Charleroi

45%Possession55%
16Shots11
2On target4
6Corners8
1.51xG1.61

Goals against chances

Standard Liege0 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth
Charleroi1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Standard Liege 4-3-3
  • 1M. EpoloG
  • 13M. FosseyD
  • 20I. KaramokoD
  • 25I. HautekietD
  • 3G. MortensenD
  • 94C. NielsenM
  • 22A. TrouilletM
  • 84R. TouzgharM
  • 17B. NgueneF
  • 10D. EckertF
  • 11A. AbidF
Substitutes
  • 21L. PirardG
  • 29D. DierckxD
  • 18H. LawrenceD
  • 23M. IlaimaharitraM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 7T. MohrM
  • 9A. ZeqiriF
  • 77B. NsimbaF
  • 15S. DrammehM
Coach: Vincent Euvrard
Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. KoneG
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4A. OusouD
  • 95C. KeitaD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 14P. PfluckeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 20F. MbembaM
  • 21A. ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 1M. DelavalleeG
  • 2T. RoweD
  • 44M. SowD
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 65M. KeraM
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 13G. NawataM
  • 9A. BojangF
Coach: Mario Kohnen

Form going into Standard Liege vs Charleroi

Standard Liege

Jupiler Pro League

  • L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026

Charleroi

Jupiler Pro League

  • W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Standard Liege114341816+215
4Charleroi119022613+1327

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Standard Liege vs Charleroi

  • 23 May 2026Standard Liege 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 18 April 2026Charleroi 1–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
  • 18 January 2026Charleroi 2–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
  • 31 October 2025Standard Liege 3–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 4 May 2025Standard Liege 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Standard Liege and Charleroi

Standard Liege

GoalsAssists

  • D. Eckert Ayensa71

Charleroi

GoalsAssists

  • A. Scheidler62
  • F. Situmona Mbemba53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charleroi won 1–0 at Standard Liege. The model had leaned towards a win for Standard Liege at 37% and given a win for Charleroi 35%. The goal: C. Keita 58' for Charleroi. Sent off: Gustav Mortensen (Standard Liege) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 1.51–1.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Standard Liege a 8.2% chance to finish in the top four: 10.4% after a win, 7.6% after a draw, 4.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.8%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

For Charleroi the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 42.4% going in: 49.9% after a win, 42.4% after a draw, 36.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.9%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.