Standard Liege
vs
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Standard Liege 1–0 Charleroi
The model makes it 36% Standard Liege, 29% draw, 35% Charleroi — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Standard Liege 1.38, Charleroi 1.34.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Standard Liege and Charleroi are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Standard Liege vs Charleroi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Standard Liege at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Standard Liege vs Charleroi
Standard Liege
- L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026
- L2-4away to KVC Westerlo12 September 2026
- W1-0Antwerp5 September 2026
- W2-1away to OH Leuven29 August 2026
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière21 August 2026
Charleroi
- W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Zulte Waregem13 September 2026
- L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
- W2-0KV Mechelen22 August 2026
What these results say
- Standard Liege scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Standard Liege | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Standard Liege vs Charleroi
- 23 May 2026Standard Liege 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 18 April 2026Charleroi 1–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 18 January 2026Charleroi 2–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 31 October 2025Standard Liege 3–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 4 May 2025Standard Liege 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 6 April 2025Charleroi 1–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Standard Liege and Charleroi
Standard Liege
- D. Eckert Ayensa4 goals1 assists
- A. Abid3 goals2 assists
Charleroi
- A. Scheidler3 goals1 assists
- F. Situmona Mbemba3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Standard Liege carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.84 for Charleroi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Standard Liege and 1.34 for Charleroi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Standard Liege rate 0.88 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charleroi rate 0.95 and 0.97.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Charleroi, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Standard Liege a 0% chance of the title and Charleroi 4.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Standard Liege the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Standard Liege against 1.34 for Charleroi. Standard Liege's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.97 for Charleroi.