Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Slovan Liberec 0-2 Slovácko.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Slovan Liberec, 28% draw, 18% Slovácko — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Slovan Liberec at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Tomáš KoubekG
- 18Josef KoželuhD
- 29Lukáš HůlkaD
- 26Jan BořilD
- 27Aziz KayondoD
- 60Fallou FayeM
- 8Lukáš MasopustM
- 16Alexandr BužekM
- 94Ghislain Vénuste BaboulaF
- 9Lukáš MašekF
- 19Vasil KušejF
- 25Matěj MikulenkaF
- 6Aleko BasiladzeF
- 34Joel AshukuF
- 77Daniel RusM
- 12Vojtěch StránskýM
- 33Lukáš PešlG
- 3Jan MikulaD
- 24Patrik DulayM
- 15Milan LexaM
- 29Milan HečaG
- 21Simon SloncikD
- 22Jocelin BehiratcheD
- 4Andrej StojchevskiD
- 2Gigli NdefeM
- 26Tihomir KostadinovM
- 10Michal TrávníkM
- 15Patrik BlahútM
- 20Marek HavlíkF
- 72Lukáš VorlickýF
- 30David PuškáčF
- 6Martin ŠviderskýM
- 77Pavel JuroškaM
- 19Tomas KralD
- 16Gibril SossehM
- 34Pavel HalouskaG
- 28Leos PriorD
- 27Artur DolznikovM
- 9Alan MarinelliF
Form going into Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
Slovácko
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Baník Ostrava19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026
- D0-0Pardubice5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Mlada Boleslav22 August 2026
What these results say
- Slovácko did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slovácko conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 26 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko
- 4 April 2026Slovan Liberec 2–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 1 November 2025Slovácko 0–3 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 30 March 2025Slovácko 0–4 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 26 October 2024Slovan Liberec 4–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 6 April 2024Slovan Liberec 4–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slovan Liberec and Slovácko
Slovan Liberec
GoalsAssists
- L. Mašek40
Slovácko
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slovácko won 2–0 at Slovan Liberec. The model had leaned towards a win for Slovan Liberec at 54% and given a win for Slovácko 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Marek Havlík 14' for Slovácko, Pavel Juroška 88' for Slovácko. Sent off: David Puškáč (Slovácko) 60'. On expected goals it finished 1.69–0.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Slovan Liberec a 62.3% chance to finish in the top four: 66.6% after a win, 58.3% after a draw, 53.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.
For Slovácko the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 64.6% going in: 53.1% after a win, 62.8% after a draw, 68.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.1%, 11.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Slovan Liberec v Slovácko has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 49% / 30% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 54% / 28% / 18%: the biggest move is Slovan Liberec's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Slovan Liberec win54%▲ +5
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Slovácko win18%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.