Slovan Liberec
vs
Slovácko
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slovan Liberec 1–0 Slovácko
The model makes it 49% Slovan Liberec, 30% draw, 21% Slovácko — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Slovan Liberec 1.59, Slovácko 0.66.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovan Liberec at 49% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko
Slovan Liberec
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav12 September 2026
- W2-1away to FK Jablonec6 September 2026
- W2-0Hradec Králové30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin22 August 2026
Slovácko
- D2-2Baník Ostrava19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026
- D0-0Pardubice5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Mlada Boleslav22 August 2026
What these results say
- Slovan Liberec went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Slovan Liberec won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slovan Liberec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slovácko did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slovácko conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 20 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko
- 4 April 2026Slovan Liberec 2–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 1 November 2025Slovácko 0–3 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 30 March 2025Slovácko 0–4 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 26 October 2024Slovan Liberec 4–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 6 April 2024Slovan Liberec 4–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 28 October 2023Slovácko 1–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slovan Liberec and Slovácko
Slovan Liberec
- P. Dulay3 goals1 assists
- L. Mašek3 goals
Slovácko
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slovan Liberec carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.44 for Slovácko. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.66 for Slovácko. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slovan Liberec rate 0.74 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovácko rate 0.62 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slovan Liberec a 15.9% chance of the title and Slovácko 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Slovan Liberec against 0.66 for Slovácko. Slovan Liberec's attack/defence rating is 0.74/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.41 for Slovácko.