KVC Westerlo
vs
Antwerp
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: KVC Westerlo 2–1 Antwerp
The model makes it 45% KVC Westerlo, 27% draw, 28% Antwerp — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: KVC Westerlo 1.99, Antwerp 1.33.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KVC Westerlo at 45% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp
KVC Westerlo
- W2-0away to St. Truiden20 September 2026
- W4-2Standard Liege12 September 2026
- W4-0away to KV Mechelen5 September 2026
- D2-2Zulte Waregem30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Lommel United23 August 2026
Antwerp
- L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Club Brugge KV13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Standard Liege5 September 2026
- L1-4St. Truiden30 August 2026
- D4-4Genk22 August 2026
What these results say
- KVC Westerlo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for KVC Westerlo had three goals or more.
- Antwerp did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Antwerp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | KVC Westerlo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp
- 23 May 2026Antwerp 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 25 April 2026KVC Westerlo 2–4 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 15 February 2026Antwerp 0–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 30 August 2025KVC Westerlo 2–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 19 January 2025Antwerp 3–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 21 September 2024KVC Westerlo 1–2 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and Antwerp
KVC Westerlo
- N. Bassette4 goals
- S. Saito3 goals
Antwerp
- M. Frey4 goals
- A. Valencia3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
KVC Westerlo carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.63 for Antwerp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.33 for Antwerp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KVC Westerlo rate 1.00 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Antwerp rate 0.80 and 1.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KVC Westerlo the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for KVC Westerlo against 1.33 for Antwerp. KVC Westerlo's attack/defence rating is 1/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.23 for Antwerp.