11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Het Kuipje, Westerlo
Referee: B. Van Driessche
Full time5 – 1

Final score: KVC Westerlo 5-1 Antwerp.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% KVC Westerlo, 25% draw, 27% Antwerp — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KVC Westerlo at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KVC Westerlo99%Draw1%Antwerp0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽I. Salah
T. Van den Keybus
26'
⚽C. Sandraassist: D. Ourega
45'
🔁T. Van den Keybusout: E. Tsimba
46'
51'
M. Benitez
I. Sakamoto
56'
57'
🔁M. Freyout: S. Porozo
⚽N. Bassetteassist: S. Saito
60'
65'
🔁X. Dierckxout: C. Scott
65'
🔁I. Salahout: M. Fofana
⚽E. Tsimba
72'
🔁N. Bassetteout: R. Laalaoui
73'
75'
C. Scott
77'
S. Porozo
84'
🔁D. Foulonout: Y. Tsunashima
🔁I. Sakamotoout: Yang Min-Hyuk
85'
🔁S. Saitoout: N. Bohamdi-Kamoni
85'
85'
🔁S. Rendersout: L. Narh
87'
A. Cortes
⚽L. Flo
88'
🔁C. Sandraout: P. Diong
89'
⚽Yang Min-Hyukassist: A. Jungdal
90'

Match stats — KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp

57%Possession43%
14Shots13
6On target3
3Corners3
2.43xG0.91

Goals against chances

KVC Westerlo5 from 2.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
Antwerp1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KVC Westerlo 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. JungdalG
  • 2L. FloD
  • 5S. KimuraD
  • 4A. LapageD
  • 28D. OuregaD
  • 45I. FofanaM
  • 14C. SandraM
  • 39T. Van den KeybusM
  • 13I. SakamotoM
  • 7S. SaitoM
  • 9N. BassetteF
Substitutes
  • 1B. LathouwersG
  • 23L. Mbamba-MuandaD
  • 40B. BaloghD
  • 12R. LaalaouiM
  • 26P. DiongM
  • 17D. Jochem
  • 22E. TsimbaF
  • 47Yang Min-HyukF
  • 11N. Bohamdi-KamoniF
Coach: Issame Charai
Antwerp 4-2-3-1
  • 41T. NozawaG
  • 17S. RendersD
  • 20R. Van HeldenD
  • 3A. CortesD
  • 5D. FoulonD
  • 8M. BenitezM
  • 48A. VermeerenM
  • 14X. DierckxM
  • 24T. SomersM
  • 7I. SalahM
  • 9M. FreyF
Substitutes
  • 81N. DevalckeneerG
  • 44M. BusiD
  • 4Y. TsunashimaM
  • 28L. SchelfhoutD
  • 10C. ScottM
  • 22F. AdekamiM
  • 25M. FofanaM
  • 33S. PorozoM
  • 99L. NarhF
Coach: Marvin Compper

Form going into KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp

KVC Westerlo

Jupiler Pro League

  • W2-0away to St. Truiden20 September 2026

Antwerp

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9KVC Westerlo114252630-414
13Antwerp113261824-611

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp

  • 23 May 2026Antwerp 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 25 April 2026KVC Westerlo 2–4 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 15 February 2026Antwerp 0–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 30 August 2025KVC Westerlo 2–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 19 January 2025Antwerp 3–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and Antwerp

KVC Westerlo

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bassette80
  • S. Saito51

Antwerp

GoalsAssists

  • M. Frey40
  • S. Porozo40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KVC Westerlo beat Antwerp 5–1. The model had made a win for KVC Westerlo its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: I. Salah 22' for Antwerp, C. Sandra 45' for KVC Westerlo, N. Bassette 60' for KVC Westerlo, E. Tsimba 72' for KVC Westerlo, L. Flo 88' for KVC Westerlo, Yang Min-Hyuk 90' for KVC Westerlo. Sent off: M. Benitez (Antwerp) 51'. On expected goals it finished 2.43–0.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KVC Westerlo a 5.6% chance to finish in the top four: 6.8% after a win, 4.3% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Antwerp the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.0% going in: 8.2% after a win, 13.1% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.8%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on KVC Westerlo v Antwerp has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is KVC Westerlo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. KVC Westerlo win48%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Antwerp win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.