OH Leuven
vs
Cercle Brugge
Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: OH Leuven 1-1 Cercle Brugge.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% OH Leuven, 29% draw, 31% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: OH Leuven 1.60, Cercle Brugge 1.26.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts OH Leuven at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge
Line-ups
- 1D. van den HeuvelG
- 5J. LawrenceD
- 3N. DussenneD
- 34R. NyakossiD
- 27Óscar GilM
- 6W. GeorgeM
- 4B. VerstraeteM
- 99D. OpokuM
- 18R. MirisolaF
- 8S. SchrijversF
- 9A. TraoréF
- 11H. TeklabM
- 17K. VaesenF
- 20S. YamadaF
- 24Ł. ŁakomyM
- 30A. FontanarosaD
- 19C. IkwuemesiF
- 61O. JochmansG
- 21W. BalikwishaF
- 26T. OgiwaraD
- 1G. CouckeG
- 5Emmanuel KakouD
- 24G. KondoD
- 33R. CaicedoD
- 2I. DiakitéM
- 15G. MagnéeM
- 42L. MondeleM
- 12V. KonatéM
- 8ErickM
- 13D. VanzeirM
- 9S. NgouraF
- 30B. AkinsolaF
- 10L. AmaniM
- 41K. KouassiF
- 21Y. LienardG
- 71V. MartensM
- 22L. MichalF
- 28H. Van der BruggenM
- 82Louis ColmanD
- 7Abdoul OuattaraF
Form going into OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
- L0-3away to SK Beveren6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Gent3 September 2026
- L1-2Standard Liege29 August 2026
- L0-3Club Brugge KV15 August 2026
Cercle Brugge
- L0-3Gent6 September 2026
- L0-1Lommel United29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Brugge KV23 August 2026
- D3-3St. Truiden14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | OH Leuven | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge
- 12 September 2026OH Leuven 1–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 21 December 2025OH Leuven 0–2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 8 November 2025Cercle Brugge 1–2 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 22 December 2024Cercle Brugge 1–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 18 August 2024OH Leuven 1–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 16 December 2023OH Leuven 1–2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.60 goals for OH Leuven and 1.26 for Cercle Brugge; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Davis Opoku 25' (OH Leuven), Krys-Anthony Madou Kouassi 90' (Cercle Brugge).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OH Leuven the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for OH Leuven against 1.26 for Cercle Brugge. OH Leuven's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.37 for Cercle Brugge.