Rosario Central
vs
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Rosario Central 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
The model makes it 65% Rosario Central, 24% draw, 11% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — fair odds of 1.54, 4.17 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.88, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.49.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Rosario Central are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Rosario Central's rating is built from 68 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- Rosario Central are top on 28 points from 14 games; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are 14th on 9 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Rosario Central are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Huracan.
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Aldosivi.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 65% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-0Huracan25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Atletico Tucuman17 October 2026
- W5-0Independiente Rivadavia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Banfield6 October 2026
- W1-0Argentinos Juniors20 September 2026
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1Aldosivi18 October 2026
- L0-1away to River Plate11 October 2026
- L1-2Racing Club5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Belgrano Cordoba20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba15 September 2026
What these results say
- Rosario Central went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosario Central won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 28 |
| 14 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 24 April 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María115
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Rosario Central carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.32 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Rosario Central and 0.49 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rosario Central rate 1.02 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.51 and 1.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Rosario Central against 0.49 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Rosario Central's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.5 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.
How the model reaches 65% for Rosario Central to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Rosario Central to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Rosario Central's ratings change nothing and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Rosario Central's ratings41%±0
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's ratings65%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rosario Central at home · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Rosario Central 32, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 29.
Rosario Central score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have let in 11 there.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Rosario Central have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.