San Lorenzo
vs
Platense
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: San Lorenzo 1–0 Platense
The model makes it 39% San Lorenzo, 35% draw, 26% Platense — fair odds of 2.56, 2.86 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 0.97, Platense 0.70.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. San Lorenzo's rating is built from 67 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Platense's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- San Lorenzo are 9th on 18 points from 14 games; Platense are 12th on 14 points from 14 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- San Lorenzo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Newell's Old Boys.
- Platense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Gimnasia Mendoza.
- Last 6 meetings: San Lorenzo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Platense 0–1 San Lorenzo.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Lorenzo vs Platense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Lorenzo at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Platense
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D0-0Newell's Old Boys24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estudiantes La Plata18 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
Platense
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza23 October 2026
- L0-1Lanus17 October 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Velez Sarsfield5 October 2026
- L0-1Newell's Old Boys20 September 2026
What these results say
- Platense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Platense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 18 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Platense
- 25 April 2026Platense 0–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 August 2025Platense 2–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 May 2025San Lorenzo 0–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2025San Lorenzo 2–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 September 2024Platense 1–2 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 March 2024Platense 0–0 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.51 for Platense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.70 for Platense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Lorenzo rate 0.56 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Platense rate 0.71 and 1.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Lorenzo the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for San Lorenzo against 0.70 for Platense. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.41 for Platense.
How the model reaches 39% for San Lorenzo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for San Lorenzo to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, San Lorenzo's ratings take away 15 points and Platense's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- San Lorenzo's ratings26%−15
- Platense's ratings39%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Lorenzo at home · Platense away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: San Lorenzo 29, Platense 29.
San Lorenzo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Platense have let in 9 there.
Platense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); San Lorenzo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.