Regular Season - 29 · 29 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Nublense vs Cobresal Primera División prediction

Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Chillan

Our model says: Nublense 2–1 Cobresal

The model makes it 42% Nublense, 26% draw, 32% Cobresal — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Nublense 1.67, Cobresal 1.37.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Nublense's rating is built from 57 Chilean Primera División matches and Cobresal's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.

Key facts

  • Nublense are 10th on 35 points from 27 games; Cobresal are 14th on 27 points from 27 games — Primera División.
  • Nublense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Colo Colo.
  • Cobresal are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Universidad de Chile.
  • Last 6 meetings: Nublense 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 May 2026, ended Cobresal 0–1 Nublense.

More Chilean Primera División predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Nublense vs Cobresal

61%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Nublense win Draw Cobresal win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Nublense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nublense at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Nublense vs Cobresal

Nublense

Primera División

  • L1-2Colo Colo8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to O'Higgins31 October 2026
  • W2-1Coquimbo Unido25 October 2026
  • L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
  • L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026

Cobresal

Primera División

  • L1-2away to Universidad de Chile8 November 2026
  • D2-2Everton de Vina1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to O'Higgins24 October 2026
  • D1-1Universidad de Concepcion10 October 2026
  • W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Nublense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Nublense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Nublense had three goals or more.
  • Cobresal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cobresal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Cobresal.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Nublense2798103141-1035
14Cobresal2776143950-1127

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Nublense vs Cobresal

  • 29 May 2026Cobresal 0–1 NublensePrimera División
  • 3 May 2026Nublense 2–0 CobresalCopa De La Liga
  • 21 March 2026Cobresal 1–1 NublenseCopa De La Liga
  • 7 December 2025Nublense 5–0 CobresalPrimera División
  • 22 June 2025Cobresal 1–1 NublensePrimera División
  • 14 September 2024Nublense 1–0 CobresalPrimera División

Leading scorers: Nublense and Cobresal

Nublense

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Cobresal

GoalsAssists

  • S. Pino81
  • J. Brea71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Nublense Cobresal
0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.65
1.71 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.81
1.67 Model expected goals (this match) 1.37

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nublense the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nublense against 1.37 for Cobresal. Nublense's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.81 for Cobresal.

How the model reaches 42% for Nublense to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Nublense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Nublense's ratings take away 2 points and Cobresal's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage45%+8
  3. Nublense's ratings43%−2
  4. Cobresal's ratings42%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

NublenseCobresal
27Matches26
9W 8D 10LRecord6W 6D 14L
31 1.1 per gameGoals scored36 1.4 per game
41 1.5 per gameGoals conceded50 1.9 per game
7 of 27Clean sheets4 of 26
6 of 27Failed to score7 of 26
6 of 6Penalties scored2 of 3
75 2.8 per gameYellow cards59 2.3 per game
6Red cards4
3-4-3 9×Usual shape4-4-2 7×

Nublense at home · Cobresal away

14Played13
5W 4D 5LRecord0W 4D 9L
18–19Goals for – against15–31
3 of 14Clean sheets0 of 13

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Nublense 27, Cobresal 26.

Nublense scored 269237
Cobresal conceded 63104911

Nublense score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Cobresal have let in 10 there.

Cobresal scored 7211076
Nublense conceded 756867

Cobresal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Nublense have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Nublense

  • at Huachipato6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 27%

Cobresal

  • vs Colo Colo6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.