Regular Season - 29 · 29 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Concepción vs Universidad de Chile Primera División prediction

Estadio Ester Roa, Concepcion

Our model says: Concepción 0–1 Universidad de Chile

The model makes it 32% Concepción, 30% draw, 38% Universidad de Chile — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Concepción 1.07, Universidad de Chile 1.21.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to Universidad de Chile: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Concepción's rating is built from 27 Chilean Primera División matches and Universidad de Chile's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.

Key facts

  • Concepción are 8th on 38 points from 27 games; Universidad de Chile are 2nd on 51 points from 27 games — Primera División.
  • Concepción have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Everton de Vina.
  • Universidad de Chile have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cobresal.

More Chilean Primera División predictions

All Chilean Primera División predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Concepción vs Universidad de Chile

47%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Concepción win Draw Universidad de Chile win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–27%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Concepción first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Universidad de Chile at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Concepción vs Universidad de Chile

Concepción

Primera División

  • W2-0away to Everton de Vina7 November 2026
  • W1-0Palestino2 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Deportes La Serena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026

Universidad de Chile

Primera División

  • W2-1Cobresal8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Universidad Catolica1 November 2026
  • W4-1Everton de Vina26 October 2026
  • W6-0Nublense12 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Concepción scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Concepción had two goals or fewer.
  • Universidad de Chile won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Universidad de Chile scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Universidad de Chile had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Concepción27115113030038
2Universidad de Chile2715664722+2551

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Concepción vs Universidad de Chile

  • 30 May 2026Universidad de Chile 2–1 ConcepciónPrimera División

Leading scorers: Concepción and Universidad de Chile

Concepción

GoalsAssists

  • J. Larrivey73

Universidad de Chile

GoalsAssists

  • E. Vargas123
  • A. Arce74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Concepción Universidad de Chile
0.57 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.85
1.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.12
1.07 Model expected goals (this match) 1.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Universidad de Chile the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Concepción against 1.21 for Universidad de Chile. Concepción's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.12 for Universidad de Chile.

How the model reaches 38% for Universidad de Chile to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universidad de Chile to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Concepción's ratings add 4 points and Universidad de Chile's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Concepción's ratings32%+4
  5. Universidad de Chile's ratings38%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ConcepciónUniversidad de Chile
27Matches27
11W 5D 11LRecord15W 6D 6L
30 1.1 per gameGoals scored47 1.7 per game
30 1.1 per gameGoals conceded22 0.8 per game
10 of 27Clean sheets11 of 27
7 of 27Failed to score6 of 27
8 of 11Penalties scored3 of 4
60 2.2 per gameYellow cards56 2.1 per game
6Red cards4
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Concepción at home · Universidad de Chile away

14Played13
6W 4D 4LRecord5W 3D 5L
18–14Goals for – against14–11
5 of 14Clean sheets5 of 13

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Concepción 27, Universidad de Chile 27.

Concepción scored 544564
Universidad de Chile conceded 523415

Concepción score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Universidad de Chile have let in 1 there.

Universidad de Chile scored 38212614
Concepción conceded 454537

Universidad de Chile score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Concepción have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Concepción

  • at Deportes Limache6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 31%

Universidad de Chile

  • vs Union La Calera6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 64%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.