Unia Skierniewice
vs
Nieciecza
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Nieciecza
The model makes it 29% Unia Skierniewice, 28% draw, 43% Nieciecza — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Unia Skierniewice 1.18, Nieciecza 1.68.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Unia Skierniewice are 13th on 10 points from 9 games; Nieciecza are 2nd on 16 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Unia Skierniewice have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Podbeskidzie.
- Nieciecza are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Odra Opole.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nieciecza at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
Unia Skierniewice
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie20 September 2026
- W3-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ruch Chorzów7 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice23 August 2026
Nieciecza
- W1-0Odra Opole19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Mielec14 September 2026
- W2-1Lechia Gdansk4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 August 2026
- L1-3Polonia Warszawa22 August 2026
What these results say
- Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nieciecza had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 2 | Nieciecza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Unia Skierniewice carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.46 for Nieciecza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.68 for Nieciecza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Unia Skierniewice rate 0.47 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nieciecza rate 0.70 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Unia Skierniewice a 0.1% chance of the title and Nieciecza 22.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nieciecza the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Unia Skierniewice against 1.68 for Nieciecza. Unia Skierniewice's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.54 for Nieciecza.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Unia Skierniewice at home · Nieciecza away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Unia Skierniewice 9, Nieciecza 9.
Unia Skierniewice score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Nieciecza have let in 0 there.
Nieciecza score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Unia Skierniewice have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Unia Skierniewice
- at Warta Poznań16 Oct · I Ligawin 21%
- vs Polonia Bytom24 Oct · I Ligawin 38%
- at Lechia Gdansk31 Oct · I Ligawin 17%
- at Odra Opole7 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce21 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
Nieciecza
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice19 Oct · I Ligawin 50%
- at Arka Gdynia24 Oct · I Ligawin 31%
- at Miedz Legnica31 Oct · I Ligawin 35%
- vs Chrobry Głogów7 Nov · I Ligawin 45%
- at Podbeskidzie21 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.