Chrobry Głogów
vs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
The model makes it 41% Chrobry Głogów, 31% draw, 28% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chrobry Głogów 1.35, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0.91.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chrobry Głogów are 9th on 12 points from 9 games; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are top on 18 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Chrobry Głogów are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Polonia Warszawa.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to ŁKS Łódź.
- Last 2 meetings: Chrobry Głogów 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Chrobry Głogów 3–0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chrobry Głogów at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Chrobry Głogów
- L0-2away to Polonia Warszawa19 September 2026
- D0-0Pogoń Siedlce12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica5 September 2026
- W2-0Ruch Chorzów30 August 2026
- L0-1Warta Poznań21 August 2026
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- W2-0ŁKS Łódź19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Unia Skierniewice13 September 2026
- W1-0Warta Poznań4 September 2026
- D2-2Nieciecza28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Bytom22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Chrobry Głogów had two goals or fewer.
- Chrobry Głogów failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 7 March 2026Chrobry Głogów 3–0 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
- 23 August 2025Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chrobry Głogów carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.29 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Chrobry Głogów and 0.91 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chrobry Głogów rate 0.50 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki rate 0.54 and 1.66.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chrobry Głogów a 1.7% chance of the title and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 6.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chrobry Głogów the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Chrobry Głogów against 0.91 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Chrobry Głogów's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.66 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chrobry Głogów at home · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Chrobry Głogów 9, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9.
Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have let in 2 there.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Chrobry Głogów have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chrobry Głogów
- at Polonia Bytom17 Oct · I Ligawin 34%
- at Stal Mielec24 Oct · I Ligawin 37%
- vs Arka Gdynia3 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
- at Nieciecza7 Nov · I Ligawin 26%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice21 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- vs Polonia Warszawa17 Oct · I Ligawin 41%
- at Ruch Chorzów25 Oct · I Ligawin 29%
- vs Stal Mielec30 Oct · I Ligawin 49%
- at Pogoń Siedlce7 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs Arka Gdynia21 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.