Arka Gdynia
vs
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Arka Gdynia 2–1 Polonia Warszawa
The model makes it 48% Arka Gdynia, 27% draw, 25% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.94, Polonia Warszawa 1.08.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arka Gdynia are 12th on 11 points from 9 games; Polonia Warszawa are 6th on 14 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Arka Gdynia have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Polonia Warszawa have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Chrobry Głogów.
- Last 4 meetings: Arka Gdynia 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2025, ended Arka Gdynia 0–0 Polonia Warszawa.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arka Gdynia at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
Arka Gdynia
- L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Warta Poznań12 September 2026
- D1-1ŁKS Łódź6 September 2026
- D1-1Polonia Bytom30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Miedz Legnica23 August 2026
Polonia Warszawa
- W2-0Chrobry Głogów19 September 2026
- D2-2Polonia Bytom11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Rzeszów5 September 2026
- L2-4Lechia Gdansk29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Nieciecza22 August 2026
What these results say
- Arka Gdynia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Polonia Warszawa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
- 14 February 2025Arka Gdynia 0–0 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 3 August 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 17 February 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 7 August 2023Arka Gdynia 2–3 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arka Gdynia carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.3 for Polonia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.08 for Polonia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arka Gdynia rate 0.66 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polonia Warszawa rate 0.60 and 1.81.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Polonia Warszawa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arka Gdynia a 8.4% chance of the title and Polonia Warszawa 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arka Gdynia the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Arka Gdynia against 1.08 for Polonia Warszawa. Arka Gdynia's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.81 for Polonia Warszawa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arka Gdynia at home · Polonia Warszawa away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Arka Gdynia 9, Polonia Warszawa 9.
Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Arka Gdynia have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arka Gdynia
- at Lechia Gdansk18 Oct · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Nieciecza24 Oct · I Ligawin 41%
- at Chrobry Głogów3 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Podbeskidzie7 Nov · I Ligawin 50%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki21 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
Polonia Warszawa
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 Oct · I Ligawin 30%
- vs Miedz Legnica23 Oct · I Ligawin 40%
- at ŁKS Łódź2 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- at Warta Poznań7 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Stal Mielec21 Nov · I Ligawin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.