ŁKS Łódź
vs
Ruch Chorzów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Ruch Chorzów
The model makes it 44% ŁKS Łódź, 29% draw, 27% Ruch Chorzów — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: ŁKS Łódź 1.60, Ruch Chorzów 1.00.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ŁKS Łódź are 4th on 15 points from 9 games; Ruch Chorzów are 11th on 12 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- ŁKS Łódź have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Ruch Chorzów are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Polonia Bytom.
- Last 6 meetings: Ruch Chorzów 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended ŁKS Łódź 2–2 Ruch Chorzów.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ŁKS Łódź at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów
ŁKS Łódź
- L0-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Odra Opole28 August 2026
- W4-0Stal Mielec23 August 2026
Ruch Chorzów
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom18 September 2026
- D3-3Podbeskidzie12 September 2026
- W3-1Unia Skierniewice7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chrobry Głogów30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Stal Rzeszów24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów
- 21 March 2026ŁKS Łódź 2–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 14 September 2025Ruch Chorzów 2–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 10 May 2025Ruch Chorzów 1–3 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 3 November 2024ŁKS Łódź 0–1 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 17 December 2023ŁKS Łódź 1–1 Ruch ChorzówEkstraklasa
- 28 July 2023Ruch Chorzów 2–0 ŁKS ŁódźEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ŁKS Łódź carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.3 for Ruch Chorzów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.00 for Ruch Chorzów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ŁKS Łódź rate 0.61 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ruch Chorzów rate 0.53 and 1.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ŁKS Łódź a 9% chance of the title and Ruch Chorzów 2.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ŁKS Łódź the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź against 1.00 for Ruch Chorzów. ŁKS Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.61 for Ruch Chorzów.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ŁKS Łódź at home · Ruch Chorzów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: ŁKS Łódź 9, Ruch Chorzów 9.
ŁKS Łódź score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Ruch Chorzów have let in 1 there.
Ruch Chorzów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); ŁKS Łódź have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ŁKS Łódź
- vs Podbeskidzie18 Oct · I Ligawin 48%
- at Warta Poznań26 Oct · I Ligawin 29%
- vs Polonia Warszawa2 Nov · I Ligawin 45%
- vs Stal Rzeszów7 Nov · I Ligawin 52%
- at Miedz Legnica21 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
Ruch Chorzów
- vs Odra Opole16 Oct · I Ligawin 42%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki25 Oct · I Ligawin 41%
- at Pogoń Siedlce3 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- at Stal Mielec7 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
- vs Warta Poznań21 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.