Podbeskidzie
vs
Pogoń Siedlce
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
The model makes it 40% Podbeskidzie, 31% draw, 29% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Podbeskidzie 1.28, Pogoń Siedlce 0.92.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Podbeskidzie are 17th on 8 points from 9 games; Pogoń Siedlce are 10th on 12 points from 8 games — I Liga.
- Podbeskidzie have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Unia Skierniewice.
- Pogoń Siedlce are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Arka Gdynia.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2023, ended Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Podbeskidzie.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Podbeskidzie at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce
Podbeskidzie
- D1-1Unia Skierniewice20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Ruch Chorzów12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice29 August 2026
- D1-1Odra Opole22 August 2026
Pogoń Siedlce
- W2-1Arka Gdynia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów12 September 2026
- W2-0Stal Mielec29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Lechia Gdansk21 August 2026
- W1-0Polonia Warszawa15 August 2026
What these results say
- Podbeskidzie did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Podbeskidzie conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Podbeskidzie had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pogoń Siedlce had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 9 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce
- 26 September 2023Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 PodbeskidzieCup
- 25 September 2019Pogoń Siedlce 1–0 PodbeskidzieCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Podbeskidzie carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.23 for Pogoń Siedlce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Podbeskidzie and 0.92 for Pogoń Siedlce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Podbeskidzie rate 0.53 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogoń Siedlce rate 0.41 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogoń Siedlce, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Podbeskidzie a 0.1% chance of the title and Pogoń Siedlce 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Podbeskidzie the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Podbeskidzie against 0.92 for Pogoń Siedlce. Podbeskidzie's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.49 for Pogoń Siedlce.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Podbeskidzie at home · Pogoń Siedlce away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Podbeskidzie 9, Pogoń Siedlce 8.
Podbeskidzie score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Pogoń Siedlce have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Podbeskidzie
- at ŁKS Łódź18 Oct · I Ligawin 24%
- vs Stal Rzeszów25 Oct · I Ligawin 45%
- vs Warta Poznań31 Oct · I Ligawin 35%
- at Arka Gdynia7 Nov · I Ligawin 23%
- vs Nieciecza21 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
Pogoń Siedlce
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice15 Oct · I Ligawin 37%
- vs Stal Rzeszów18 Oct · I Ligawin 42%
- at Odra Opole25 Oct · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Ruch Chorzów3 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki7 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.