Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Bosnia & Herzegovina, 31% draw, 34% Sweden — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bosnia & Herzegovina at 35%: of 4,355 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden
Line-ups
- 12S. HamzićG
- 15A. MemićD
- 18N. KatićD
- 4T. MuharemovićD
- 5S. KolašinacD
- 20E. BajraktarevicM
- 13I. BašićM
- 8A. GigovićM
- 19Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 10E. DemirovićF
- 11E. DžekoF
- 17L. ĐurićM
- 1M. JurkasG
- 9J. LukićF
- 16Ermin MahmićM
- 3A. MalicD
- 2N. MujakićD
- 7N. OmerovićF
- 21S. RadeljićD
- 6Z. SmajlovićD
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 14E. SkoglundD
- 15C. StarfeltD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 21A. BernhardssonM
- 20H. LarssonM
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 19S. NanasiM
- 22B. ZeneliF
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 18S. DahlD
- 10H. BolinM
- 2F. BeijmoD
- 23N. TörnqvistG
- 11W. SwedbergF
- 8D. SvenssonD
- 4E. SmithM
- 13K. SemaM
- 1M. EllborgG
Form going into Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA Nations League
- W4-2away to Romania28 September 2026
- D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026
Sweden
UEFA Nations League
- W3-1Poland28 September 2026
- W2-1Romania25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Sweden
GoalsAssists
- V. Gyökeres40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bosnia & Herzegovina at 35% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Viktor Gyökeres 61' for Sweden, Kerim Alajbegovic 80' for Bosnia & Herzegovina.