Parma vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Parma 0-1 Cagliari.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Parma, 24% draw, 39% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cagliari at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Parma vs Cagliari
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40E. CorviG
- 15E. DelpratoD
- 37M. TroiloD
- 3A. NdiayeD
- 14E. ValeriD
- 10A. BernabeM
- 47A. KonateM
- 32C. OrdonezM
- 16M. KeitaF
- 19E. B. ToureF
- 76S. LontaniF
- 30G. DaffaraG
- 75A. MazzocchiG
- 5L. ValentiD
- 29F. CarboniD
- 72D. DrobnicD
- 11P. AlmqvistF
- 8B. CremaschiM
- 24O. SorensenM
- 80R. KoudaM
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2J. PedroD
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodriguezD
- 33A. ObertD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 70D. MaldiniM
- 10J. FazziniM
- 31P. MendyF
- 23B. RadunovicG
- 12A. SherriG
- 26Y. MinaD
- 28G. ZappaD
- 24G. AurelioD
- 21N. CavuotiM
- 16M. PratiM
- 32I. SulevM
- 27J. LitetaM
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Parma vs Cagliari
- 27 February 2026Parma 1–1 CagliariSerie A
- 13 September 2025Cagliari 2–0 ParmaSerie A
- 9 February 2025Cagliari 2–1 ParmaSerie A
- 30 September 2024Parma 2–3 CagliariSerie A
- 3 June 2023Parma 0–0 CagliariSerie B
Leading scorers: Parma and Cagliari
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cagliari won 1–0 at Parma. The model had made a win for Cagliari its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: A. Romano 79' for Cagliari. On expected goals it finished 0.76–0.74.