22 August 2026, 21:30 UTC

Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result

Porto Alegre
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Internacional 0-0 Atletico Mineiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Internacional, 21% draw, 48% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 3.23, 4.76 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Mineiro at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Internacional5%Draw89%Atletico Mineiro6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁Bernardout: Fred
46'
🔁T. Perezout: K. Castano
Bruno Gomes
48'
62'
Fred
64'
🔁R. Lodiout: Dudu
66'
🔁Ruan Tressoldiout: Vitor Hugo
69'
Kauã Pascini
Rodrigo Villagra
72'
🔁Matheus Cunhaout: Anthoni
77'
🔁J. Carboneroout: N. Eliasson
78'
🔁Bruno Henriqueout: Paulinho Paula
78'
81'
🔁M. Cisseout: A. Franco
Guillermo Maripán
90+10'
Gabriel Mercado
90+9'
Paulinho Paula
90+9'
90+10'
Kevin Castaño
🔁Bruno Gomesout: Juninho
90+2'
🔁Alan Patrickout: Allex
90+2'

Match stats — Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro

52%Possession48%
23Shots11
3On target5
6Corners5
1.2xG0.84

Goals against chances

Internacional0 from 1.20 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Mineiro0 from 0.84 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Internacional 4-2-3-1
  • 23Matheus CunhaG
  • 15Bruno GomesD
  • 3G. MaripanD
  • 25G. MercadoD
  • 35B. AguirreD
  • 5R. VillagraM
  • 8Bruno HenriqueM
  • 28VitinhoM
  • 10Alan PatrickM
  • 26A. BernabeiM
  • 7J. CarboneroF
Substitutes
  • 12AnthoniG
  • 18JuninhoD
  • 53L. F. de Morais FranciscoD
  • 4F. TorresD
  • 17N. EliassonM
  • 29Thiago MaiaM
  • 27Paulinho PaulaM
  • 16RonaldoM
  • 30CalebeM
Coach: Paulo Pezzolano
Atletico Mineiro 3-4-2-1
  • 22EversonG
  • 40VitaoD
  • 4Ruan TressoldiD
  • 6R. LodiD
  • 2NatanaelM
  • 25T. PerezM
  • 39M. CisseM
  • 36K. PasciniM
  • 27A. MindaF
  • 11BernardF
  • 18T. BorbasF
Substitutes
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 53Pedro Lemos
  • 7FredM
  • 21A. FrancoM
  • 19ReinierM
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 8MayconM
  • 15K. CastanoM
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

Form going into Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro

Internacional

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Remo17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Palmeiras9 August 2026
  • D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026
  • L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026
  • L1-2Cruzeiro23 July 2026

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Gremio16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Remo8 August 2026
  • W1-0RB Bragantino29 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Palmeiras26 July 2026
  • D1-1Bahia21 July 2026

What these results say

  • Internacional did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Internacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Internacional had two goals or fewer.
  • Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Internacional34911143842-438
7Atletico Mineiro34148124440+450

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro

  • 11 March 2026Atletico Mineiro 1–0 InternacionalSerie A
  • 2 November 2025Internacional 0–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 13 June 2025Atletico Mineiro 2–0 InternacionalSerie A
  • 26 October 2024Atletico Mineiro 1–3 InternacionalSerie A
  • 27 June 2024Internacional 1–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 1 October 2023Internacional 0–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A

The full Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro record →

Leading scorers: Internacional and Atletico Mineiro

Internacional

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carbonero74

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Internacional and Atletico Mineiro drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Mineiro at 48% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.20–0.84.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.