22 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Inter vs Monza Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Inter 4-1 Monza.

Before kick-off the model made it 86% Inter, 9% draw, 5% Monza — fair odds of 1.16, 11.11 and 20.00.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter at 86%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter99%Draw1%Monza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. Calhanogluassist: A. Diouf
6'
29'
⚽G. Varelaassist: M. Mout
Lautaro Martínez
34'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
45+1'
⚽P. Zielinski
48'
🔁H. Calhanogluout: P. Sucic
54'
🔁L. Martinezout: A. Bonny
54'
⚽F. Espositoassist: A. Diouf
55'
⚽Y. Bisseckassist: F. Esposito
63'
69'
Eddy Kouadio
70'
🔁M. Moutout: N. Galazzi
70'
🔁A. Colpaniout: O. Forson
70'
🔁A. Bakouneout: P. Cutrone
🔁M. Akanjiout: J. Stones
75'
🔁A. Dioufout: Luis Henrique
75'
🔁P. Zielinskiout: A. Stankovic
83'
83'
🔁G. Varelaout: J. Robinson
84'
Lorenzo Lucchesi
88'
🔁L. Lucchesiout: F. Delli Carri

Match stats — Inter vs Monza

71%Possession29%
13Shots7
5On target3
3Corners3
1.16xG1.09

Goals against chances

Inter4 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Monza1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter 3-5-2
  • 1J. MartinezG
  • 31Y. BisseckD
  • 25M. AkanjiD
  • 95A. BastoniD
  • 17A. DioufM
  • 23N. BarellaM
  • 20H. CalhanogluM
  • 7P. ZielinskiM
  • 32F. DimarcoM
  • 94F. EspositoF
  • 10L. MartinezF
Substitutes
  • 49I. ProvedelG
  • 12R. Di GennaroG
  • 46L. BovioD
  • 6J. StonesD
  • 28B. PavardD
  • 5A. StankovicM
  • 8P. SucicM
  • 30Carlos AugustoD
  • 9M. ThuramF
Coach: Cristian Chivu
Monza 3-4-3
  • 13S. PizzignaccoG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 24A. BakouneM
  • 8F. Ondoa
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 28A. ColpaniF
  • 9G. VarelaF
  • 7R. MangasF
Substitutes
  • 43A. StrajnarG
  • 50A. Ballabio
  • 6V. AntovD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 23N. GalazziM
  • 11O. ForsonF
  • 46J. RobinsonF
  • 22S. LoubaoF
  • 10P. CutroneF
Coach: Ivan Juric

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter119112813+1528
18Monza112181725-87

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter vs Monza

  • 12 August 2025Monza 2–2 InterFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 March 2025Inter 3–2 MonzaSerie A
  • 15 September 2024Monza 1–1 InterSerie A
  • 13 January 2024Monza 1–5 InterSerie A
  • 19 August 2023Inter 2–0 MonzaSerie A

The full Inter vs Monza record →

Leading scorers: Inter and Monza

Inter

GoalsAssists

  • M. Thuram62

Monza

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Varela91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter beat Monza 4–1. The model had made a win for Inter its most likely outcome, at 86%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: H. Calhanoglu 6' for Inter, G. Varela 29' for Monza, P. Zielinski 48' for Inter, F. Esposito 55' for Inter, Y. Bisseck 63' for Inter. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.09.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.