Twente
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Twente 0–1 PSV Eindhoven
The model makes it 34% Twente, 30% draw, 36% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Twente 1.22, PSV Eindhoven 1.28.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Twente vs PSV Eindhoven
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Twente wins, grey are draws, red are PSV Eindhoven wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Twente vs PSV Eindhoven
Twente
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
- W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
- W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Twente vs PSV Eindhoven
- 17 May 2026PSV Eindhoven 5–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 August 2025Twente 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 24 April 2025Twente 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 6 December 2024PSV Eindhoven 6–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 March 2024PSV Eindhoven 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 January 2024PSV Eindhoven 3–1 TwenteKNVB Beker
Leading scorers: Twente and PSV Eindhoven
Twente
- W. Weghorst3 goals1 assists
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists
- R. Pepi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Twente carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.98 for PSV Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Twente and 1.28 for PSV Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Twente rate 0.83 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PSV Eindhoven rate 1.17 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Twente a 2.8% chance of the title and PSV Eindhoven 73.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Twente against 1.28 for PSV Eindhoven. Twente's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.9 for PSV Eindhoven.