Twente vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Twente 3-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Twente, 30% draw, 35% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Twente vs PSV Eindhoven
Line-ups
- 1L. UnnerstallG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 38M. BrunsD
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 17F. ThorvaldsenM
- 10Y. TahaM
- 27S. ØrjasæterM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 37N. ÜnüvarF
- 11D. RotsF
- 2M. RosiakD
- 7M. PjacaF
- 22R. PasveerG
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 16J. DrommelG
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 17Mauro JúniorD
- 24K. SanoM
- 10P. WannerM
- 5I. PerišićM
- 20G. TilM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 9R. PepiF
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
- 35A. SantosM
- 1N. OlijG
- 21S. MijnansM
- 27D. ManF
- 18F. KostićM
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 31N. FernandezM
Form going into Twente vs PSV Eindhoven
Twente
Eredivisie
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Twente vs PSV Eindhoven
- 17 May 2026PSV Eindhoven 5–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 August 2025Twente 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 24 April 2025Twente 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 6 December 2024PSV Eindhoven 6–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 March 2024PSV Eindhoven 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
Leading scorers: Twente and PSV Eindhoven
Twente
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- G. Til61
- S. Mijnans51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Twente beat PSV Eindhoven 3–2. The goals: Younes Taha El Idrissi 14' for Twente, Guus Til 26' for PSV Eindhoven, Guus Til 29' for PSV Eindhoven, Wout Weghorst 79' for Twente, Daouda Weidmann 83' for Twente.
How the call on Twente v PSV Eindhoven has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is PSV Eindhoven's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Twente win35%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +2
- PSV Eindhoven win35%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.