AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Telstar.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% AZ Alkmaar, 28% draw, 24% Telstar — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar
Line-ups
- 28J. De BusserG
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 14C. StengsM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 11R. DaalM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 29W. HoedtD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 19J. HornkampF
- 18B. KovacsF
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 20A. NataliD
- 24A. OufkirF
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 7Weslley PatatiF
- 1R. KoemanG
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 3Gerald AldersM
- 17N. RossenM
- 10T. OwusuM
- 2J. HardeveldM
- 7Rui MendesM
- 27P. BrouwerM
- 9Jelani SeedorfF
- 18G. CaschiliD
- 8E. DemircanF
- 14H. KusterM
- 42A. MarthaD
- 13Finn MulderG
- 28R. OudstenD
- 20D. ReizigerG
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 21F. TurayF
Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie
- D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
Telstar
Eredivisie
- D0-0away to Heerenveen13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 20 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar
- 4 March 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–1 TelstarKNVB Beker
- 25 January 2026Telstar 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 5 October 2025AZ Alkmaar 2–1 TelstarEredivisie
Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Telstar
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- R. Daal50
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AZ Alkmaar beat Telstar 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for AZ Alkmaar at 48%. The goal: Mexx Meerdink 19' for AZ Alkmaar.
How the call on AZ Alkmaar v Telstar has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is AZ Alkmaar's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- AZ Alkmaar win48%▲ +4
- Draw28%=
- Telstar win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.