NEC Nijmegen
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 2–1 GO Ahead Eagles
The model makes it 40% NEC Nijmegen, 27% draw, 33% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.84, GO Ahead Eagles 1.53.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are NEC Nijmegen wins, grey are draws, red are GO Ahead Eagles wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEC Nijmegen at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
- W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
- W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026
GO Ahead Eagles
- D1-1Groningen12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Utrecht8 September 2026
- L2-5away to AZ Alkmaar29 August 2026
- W3-1ADO Den Haag23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles
- 17 May 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 5 October 2025GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 9 March 2025NEC Nijmegen 2–3 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 7 December 2024GO Ahead Eagles 5–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 23 May 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 28 January 2024GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
GO Ahead Eagles
- S. Tengstedt5 goals2 assists
- V. Edvardsen3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.67 for GO Ahead Eagles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.53 for GO Ahead Eagles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 0.89 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.89 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GO Ahead Eagles, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEC Nijmegen a 0.4% chance of the title and GO Ahead Eagles 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.53 for GO Ahead Eagles. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.27 for GO Ahead Eagles.