Nice vs Lille Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Nice 2-1 Lille.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Nice, 32% draw, 36% Lille — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nice vs Lille
Line-ups
- 23Y. DioufG
- 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
- 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
- 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
- 92J. ClaussM
- 39D. CoulibalyM
- 28A. WitselM
- 27N. NkounkouM
- 7G. HeinM
- 9M. AmouraM
- 11E. WahiF
- 87E. PereiraM
- 36A. SeiduD
- 2A. AbdiD
- 6H. BoudaouiM
- 77T. BoulhendiG
- 10S. DiopM
- 21I. JanssonF
- 84H. KoutouneD
- 29N. NgoumouF
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 21B. AndréM
- 6N. BentalebM
- 8E. MbappéM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 19B. ÖnalM
- 18A. UedaF
- 26I. CossierD
- 12O. GillG
- 9O. GiroudF
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 17N. MukauM
- 28G. PerrinF
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 7D. BakwaF
Form going into Nice vs Lille
Nice
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to Auxerre12 September 2026
Lille
Ligue 1
- W2-0Estac Troyes13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nice vs Lille
- 18 April 2026Lille 0–0 NiceLigue 1
- 29 October 2025Nice 2–0 LilleLigue 1
- 17 January 2025Lille 2–1 NiceLigue 1
- 10 November 2024Nice 2–2 LilleLigue 1
- 19 May 2024Lille 2–2 NiceLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nice and Lille
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi31
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nice beat Lille 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lille at 36% and given a win for Nice 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Nathan Ngoy (own goal) 22' for Nice, Mohamed Amoura 67' for Nice, Ayase Ueda 79' for Lille.
How the call on Nice v Lille has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 35% / 31% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 32% / 36%: the biggest move is Nice's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Nice win32%▼ −3
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Lille win36%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.