Fiorentina vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Fiorentina, 30% draw, 35% Napoli — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fiorentina at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fiorentina vs Napoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 43David De GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3Radu DrăguşinD
- 6Luca RanieriD
- 33VieryD
- 27Cher NdourM
- 44Nicolò FagioliM
- 14Arthur AttaM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 25Alieu NjieF
- 21Víctor ValdepeñasD
- 28Pedro GonçalvesM
- 23BetoF
- 29Wilfried GnontoF
- 5Marin PongračićD
- 53Oliver ChristensenG
- 19Luca LezzeriniG
- 17João MárioD
- 2DodôD
- 32Vanja Milinković-SavićG
- 22Giovanni Di LorenzoD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 17Mathías OliveraD
- 6Billy GilmourM
- 68Stanislav LobotkaM
- 21Matteo PolitanoM
- 11Kevin De BruyneM
- 70Noa LangM
- 19Rasmus HøjlundF
- 20Lorenzo LuccaF
- 7David NeresF
- 2Costantino FavasuliD
- 99Frank AnguissaM
- 12Claudio PuglieseG
- 14Nikita ContiniG
- 31Sam BeukemaD
- 5Benoît BadiashileD
- 26Antonio VergaraM
Form going into Fiorentina vs Napoli
Fiorentina
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026
Napoli
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026
What these results say
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.
- Fiorentina failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Napoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 5 |
| 7 | Napoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Napoli
- 31 January 2026Napoli 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 13 September 2025Fiorentina 1–3 NapoliSerie A
- 9 March 2025Napoli 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 4 January 2025Fiorentina 0–3 NapoliSerie A
- 17 May 2024Fiorentina 2–2 NapoliSerie A
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Napoli
Fiorentina
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Napoli
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fiorentina and Napoli drew 1–1. The goals: B. Gilmour 23' for Napoli, A. Jimenez 51' for Fiorentina. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.45.
How the call on Fiorentina v Napoli has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Fiorentina win35%▼ −1
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Napoli win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.