Fiorentina
vs
Napoli
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fiorentina 1–0 Napoli
The model makes it 35% Fiorentina, 30% draw, 35% Napoli — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.21, Napoli 1.21.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fiorentina vs Napoli
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Fiorentina wins, grey are draws, red are Napoli wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fiorentina at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fiorentina vs Napoli
Fiorentina
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026
Napoli
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Napoli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Napoli
- 31 January 2026Napoli 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 13 September 2025Fiorentina 1–3 NapoliSerie A
- 9 March 2025Napoli 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 4 January 2025Fiorentina 0–3 NapoliSerie A
- 17 May 2024Fiorentina 2–2 NapoliSerie A
- 18 January 2024Napoli 3–0 FiorentinaSuper Cup
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Napoli
Fiorentina
- Franco Mastantuono3 goals
- Mateo Pellegrino2 goals
Napoli
- R. Højlund2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fiorentina carry a model rating of 6.89 against 7.04 for Napoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Fiorentina and 1.21 for Napoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fiorentina rate 0.99 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Napoli rate 1.09 and 0.75.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Napoli, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fiorentina the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fiorentina against 1.21 for Napoli. Fiorentina's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.75 for Napoli.