Regular Season - 6 · 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result

Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Cambuur 3-0 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Cambuur, 27% draw, 29% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Cambuur 1.98, NEC Nijmegen 1.39.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen

65%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%2-1 9%2-0 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cambuur at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambuur99%Draw1%NEC Nijmegen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ilyes Hamacheassist: Billy van Duijl
21'
Devid Eugene Bouah
32'
35'
Tobias Storm
37'
Philippe Sandler
45'
🔁Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz Ortegaout: Nikolas Polster
⚽Ilyes Hamache
54'
58'
🔁Adam Tahauiout: Emre Mor
58'
🔁Dennis Geigerout: Jamiro Monteiro
58'
🔁Philippe Sandlerout: Bryan Linssen
🔁Mathieu Maertensout: Jamal Amofa
64'
🔁Nicolas Binderout: Sami Bouhoudane
71'
🔁Fabian Kvamout: Iwan Henstra
72'
73'
🔁Emre Morout: Kevin Kers
🔁Ilyes Hamacheout: Skye Vink
84'
🔁Devid Eugene Bouahout: Wiebe Kooistra
84'
87'
Noe Lebreton
⚽Iwan Henstraassist: Jamal Amofa
90+2'
90+5'
Almugera Kabar
Iwan Henstra
90+5'

Match stats — Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen

37%Possession63%
16Shots10
7On target1
4Corners5

Line-ups

Cambuur 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 2D. BouahD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 14B. van DuijlD
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 33M. MaertensM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 15F. KvamM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 11I. HamacheM
  • 13N. BinderF
Substitutes
  • 17Ethan ApkakouM
  • 6J. AmofaD
  • 3J. BerkhoutD
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
  • 29Iwan HenstraF
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 27W. KooistraF
  • 21J. MeijsterG
  • 16R. MuldersD
Coach: J. Plat
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 3P. SandlerD
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 19Adam TahauiM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 14K. SierhuisF
Substitutes
  • 77A. ThomasF
  • 10D. TadićF
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 42Y. MoslihD
  • 7E. MorF
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 30B. LinssenF
  • 34Kevin KersF
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Form going into Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen

Cambuur

  • D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
  • L1-4Twente30 August 2026
  • L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026

NEC Nijmegen

  • D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
  • L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cambuur6114918-94
10NEC Nijmegen62131112-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen

  • 12 September 2026Cambuur 3–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 27 February 2024Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker
  • 11 February 2023NEC Nijmegen 0–0 CambuurEredivisie
  • 4 November 2022Cambuur 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 3 April 2022Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 16 December 2021Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker

Leading scorers: Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen

Cambuur

  • R. El Arguioui4 goals
  • I. Hamache3 goals1 assists

NEC Nijmegen

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.98 goals for Cambuur and 1.39 for NEC Nijmegen; the game produced 3 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ilyes Hamache 21' (Cambuur), Ilyes Hamache 54' (Cambuur), Iwan Henstra 90' (Cambuur).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cambuur the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Cambuur against 1.39 for NEC Nijmegen. Cambuur's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.43 for NEC Nijmegen.