12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result

Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Cambuur 3-0 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Cambuur, 27% draw, 35% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cambuur at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambuur99%Draw1%NEC Nijmegen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ilyes Hamacheassist: Billy van Duijl
21'
Devid Eugene Bouah
32'
35'
Tobias Storm
37'
Philippe Sandler
45'
🔁Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz Ortegaout: Nikolas Polster
⚽Ilyes Hamache
54'
58'
🔁Adam Tahauiout: Emre Mor
58'
🔁Dennis Geigerout: Jamiro Monteiro
58'
🔁Philippe Sandlerout: Bryan Linssen
🔁Mathieu Maertensout: Jamal Amofa
64'
🔁Nicolas Binderout: Sami Bouhoudane
71'
🔁Fabian Kvamout: Iwan Henstra
72'
73'
🔁Emre Morout: Kevin Kers
🔁Ilyes Hamacheout: Skye Vink
84'
🔁Devid Eugene Bouahout: Wiebe Kooistra
84'
87'
Noe Lebreton
⚽Iwan Henstraassist: Jamal Amofa
90+2'
90+5'
Almugera Kabar
Iwan Henstra
90+5'

Match stats — Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen

37%Possession63%
16Shots10
7On target1
4Corners5

Line-ups

Cambuur 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 2D. BouahD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 14B. van DuijlD
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 33M. MaertensM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 15F. KvamM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 11I. HamacheM
  • 13N. BinderF
Substitutes
  • 17Ethan ApkakouM
  • 6J. AmofaD
  • 3J. BerkhoutD
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
  • 29Iwan HenstraF
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 27W. KooistraF
  • 21J. MeijsterG
  • 16R. MuldersD
Coach: J. Plat
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 3P. SandlerD
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 19Adam TahauiM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 14K. SierhuisF
Substitutes
  • 77A. ThomasF
  • 10D. TadićF
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 42Y. MoslihD
  • 7E. MorF
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 30B. LinssenF
  • 34Kevin KersF
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Form going into Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen

Cambuur

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
  • L1-4Twente30 August 2026
  • L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026
  • L0-4Excelsior7 August 2026

NEC Nijmegen

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
  • L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt25 August 2026
  • L1-3Bodo/Glimt19 August 2026

What these results say

  • Cambuur did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Cambuur conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Cambuur had three goals or more.
  • NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for NEC Nijmegen had three goals or more.
  • NEC Nijmegen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cambuur103341922-312
12NEC Nijmegen102531718-111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen

  • 27 February 2024Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker
  • 11 February 2023NEC Nijmegen 0–0 CambuurEredivisie
  • 4 November 2022Cambuur 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 3 April 2022Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 16 December 2021Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker

The full Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen record →

Leading scorers: Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen

Cambuur

GoalsAssists

  • I. Hamache52
  • N. Binder52
  • R. El Arguioui51

NEC Nijmegen

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cambuur beat NEC Nijmegen 3–0. The model had made a win for Cambuur its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ilyes Hamache 21' for Cambuur, Ilyes Hamache 54' for Cambuur, Iwan Henstra 90+2' for Cambuur.

How the call on Cambuur v NEC Nijmegen has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Cambuur's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cambuur win38%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. NEC Nijmegen win35%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.