Fortuna Sittard
vs
Ajax
Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Fortuna Sittard, 28% draw, 39% Ajax — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.38, Ajax 1.63.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Line-ups
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 23P. BrittijnD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 20É. MichutM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 10O. RomenyF
- 9A. DescotteF
- 39Ganni BuyukhanM
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 44David StockbrinkF
- 15N. de GrootD
- 35K. van BurgstedenM
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 26M. PaesG
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 5O. WijndalD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 36D. JanseD
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
Ajax
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
- W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
- 12 September 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–5 AjaxEredivisie
- 14 February 2026Ajax 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 6 December 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–3 AjaxEredivisie
- 9 February 2025Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 18 September 2024Ajax 5–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 10 March 2024Ajax 2–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
- M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
- L. Zeefuik3 goals1 assists
Ajax
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.38 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.63 for Ajax; the game produced 1 and 5.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Julian Brandt 35' (Ajax), Anthony Descotte 52' (Fortuna Sittard), Thilo Kehrer 62' (Ajax), Davy Klaassen 73' (Ajax), Kasper Dolberg 79' (Ajax), Youri Baas 90' (Ajax).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard against 1.63 for Ajax. Fortuna Sittard's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.06 for Ajax.