Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Fortuna Sittard, 29% draw, 38% Ajax — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Line-ups
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 23P. BrittijnD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 20É. MichutM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 10O. RomenyF
- 9A. DescotteF
- 39Ganni BuyukhanM
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 44David StockbrinkF
- 15N. de GrootD
- 35K. van BurgstedenM
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 26M. PaesG
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 5O. WijndalD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 36D. JanseD
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
- D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026
Ajax
All competitions we cover
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
- W5-3FC Sion27 August 2026
- W4-2away to FC Sion20 August 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard had three goals or more.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
- 14 February 2026Ajax 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 6 December 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–3 AjaxEredivisie
- 9 February 2025Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 18 September 2024Ajax 5–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 10 March 2024Ajax 2–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
GoalsAssists
- A. Descotte50
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- J. Brandt62
- T. Arokodare51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax won 5–1 at Fortuna Sittard. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Julian Brandt 35' for Ajax, Anthony Descotte 52' for Fortuna Sittard, Thilo Kehrer 62' for Ajax, Davy Klaassen 73' for Ajax, Kasper Dolberg 79' for Ajax, Youri Baas 90+6' for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Fortuna Sittard's most recent league matches and Ajax's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.