27 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Brighton vs Tromso UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Amex Stadium, Brighton
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Brighton 4-0 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Brighton, 17% draw, 9% Tromso — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Brighton at 74% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brighton99%Draw1%Tromso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
🔁V. Skjaervikout: L. Hien
⚽C. Kostoulasassist: M. De Cuyper
22'
⚽M. De Cuyper
33'
⚽M. Wiefferassist: C. Kostoulas
38'
44'
Alexander Warneryd
🔁M. Wiefferout: Costinha
46'
🔁L. Dunkout: P. Struijk
46'
46'
🔁A. Thongla-Iad Warnerydout: S. Innvaer
46'
🔁J. Grundtout: L. O. Larsen
46'
🔁H. Larsenout: Ieltsin Camoes
🔁M. De Cuyperout: I. Osman
66'
🔁D. Gomezout: Z. Yohanna
66'
🔁M. O'Rileyout: M. Yalcouye
81'
81'
🔁out: C. Oyvann
⚽O. Boscagli
86'

Match stats — Brighton vs Tromso

78%Possession22%
21Shots5
8On target0
7Corners0

Line-ups

Brighton 4-3-3
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 27M. WiefferD
  • 44L. VuskovicD
  • 5L. DunkD
  • 21O. BoscagliD
  • 33M. O'RileyM
  • 26Y. AyariM
  • 13P. GrossM
  • 25D. GomezF
  • 19C. KostoulasF
  • 29M. De CuyperF
Substitutes
  • 23J. SteeleG
  • 38T. McGillG
  • 20CostinhaD
  • 41F. SimmondsD
  • 24F. KadiogluD
  • 4P. StruijkD
  • 35M. YalcouyeM
  • 43J. Robertson
  • 50S. NtiM
Coach: Fabian Hurzeler
Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 17I. DahlqvistD
  • 30I. VadebuD
  • 4V. SkjaervikD
  • 3M. TonnessenD
  • 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 8J. GrundtM
  • 10T. NyhammerF
  • 22H. LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 32A. SarrG
  • 2L. CornicD
  • 25C. OyvannD
  • 21L. HienF
  • 27M. MikkelsenM
  • 37S. InnvaerM
  • 24V. OsujiD
  • 7L. O. LarsenF
Coach: Jorgen Vik

Form going into Brighton vs Tromso

Brighton

  • W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026

Tromso

  • L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Brighton and Tromso in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3BrightonPremier League5311165+1110
3TromsoEliteserien2111554029+1138

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premier League · Eliteserien

Head-to-head: Brighton vs Tromso

  • 20 August 2026Tromso 0–0 BrightonUEFA Europa Conference League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Brighton and Tromso

Brighton

  • P. Groß3 goals3 assists
  • C. Kostoulas2 goals1 assist
  • M. Yalcouyé2 goals

Tromso

  • H. Larsen10 goals3 assists
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.