Charleroi
vs
Cercle Brugge
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Charleroi 2–1 Cercle Brugge
The model makes it 50% Charleroi, 26% draw, 24% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Charleroi 2.21, Cercle Brugge 1.15.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Charleroi wins, grey are draws, red are Cercle Brugge wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charleroi at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
- W1-0away to Zulte Waregem13 September 2026
- L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
- W2-0KV Mechelen22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lommel United16 August 2026
Cercle Brugge
- D1-1away to OH Leuven12 September 2026
- L0-3Gent6 September 2026
- L0-1Lommel United29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Brugge KV23 August 2026
- D3-3St. Truiden14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Charleroi | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 |
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
- 7 February 2026Charleroi 3–4 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 14 September 2025Cercle Brugge 2–3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 25 January 2025Charleroi 1–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 3 November 2024Cercle Brugge 2–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 9 March 2024Charleroi 0–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 5 August 2023Cercle Brugge 2–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
The two sides
Charleroi carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.61 for Cercle Brugge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Charleroi and 1.15 for Cercle Brugge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charleroi rate 0.99 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cercle Brugge rate 0.85 and 1.37.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charleroi a 0.1% chance of the title and Cercle Brugge 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Charleroi against 1.15 for Cercle Brugge. Charleroi's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.37 for Cercle Brugge.