Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Charleroi, 26% draw, 24% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Jupiler Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charleroi at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
Line-ups
- 30M. KonéG
- 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
- 4A. OusouD
- 95C. KeitaD
- 24M. NzitaD
- 18Y. KhalifiM
- 6A. BoukamirM
- 14P. PflückeM
- 8J. RomsaasM
- 20F. Situmona MbembaM
- 21A. ScheidlerF
- 1M. DelavalléeG
- 33N. SolheidD
- 44M. SowD
- 51Mory KeraM
- 13G. NawataM
- 2T. RoweD
- 9A. BojangF
- 25A. ColassinF
- 19I. CisseM
- 1G. CouckeG
- 8ErickD
- 2I. DiakitéD
- 24G. KondoD
- 33R. CaicedoD
- 12V. KonatéD
- 10L. AmaniM
- 42L. MondeleM
- 15G. MagnéeM
- 13D. VanzeirF
- 41K. KouassiF
- 30B. AkinsolaF
- 5Emmanuel KakouD
- 3Yago LincolnD
- 21Y. LienardG
- 28H. Van der BruggenM
- 22L. MichalF
- 7Abdoul OuattaraF
- 9S. NgouraF
- 71V. MartensM
Form going into Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League
- W1-0away to Zulte Waregem13 September 2026
- L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
Cercle Brugge
Jupiler Pro League
- D1-1away to OH Leuven12 September 2026
- L0-3Gent6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Charleroi | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
- 7 February 2026Charleroi 3–4 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 14 September 2025Cercle Brugge 2–3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 25 January 2025Charleroi 1–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 3 November 2024Cercle Brugge 2–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 9 March 2024Charleroi 0–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Charleroi and Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
GoalsAssists
- F. Situmona Mbemba30
Cercle Brugge
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 3–2. The model had made a win for Charleroi its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Freddy Mbemba 15' for Charleroi, Aurelien Scheidler 25' for Charleroi, Dante Vanzeir 30' for Cercle Brugge, Aurelien Scheidler (penalty) 61' for Charleroi, Steve Ngoura (penalty) 73' for Cercle Brugge.
How the call on Charleroi v Cercle Brugge has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Charleroi's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Charleroi win50%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Cercle Brugge win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.