FC Midtjylland
vs
Brondby
Superliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Midtjylland 4-1 Brondby.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% FC Midtjylland, 26% draw, 21% Brondby — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.16, Brondby 0.91.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Midtjylland vs Brondby
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Midtjylland vs Brondby
Line-ups
- 1E. ÓlafssonG
- 5R. KristensenD
- 3M. JensenD
- 55V. Bak JensenD
- 8P. BillingM
- 29K. WätjenM
- 19P. BravoM
- 98D. MartínezM
- 10Cho Gue-SungM
- 18S. IheanachoF
- 90F. EtimF
- 25N. BakkerG
- 21D. CastilloM
- 38J. EmefileM
- 15B. Dje Bi DjeD
- 34N. A. AzizD
- 9M. RajovićF
- 17M. UhreF
- 42Frederik VestergaardM
- 27S. JohannesenM
- 1P. PentzG
- 2O. VilladsenD
- 30J. VanlerbergheD
- 32F. AlvesD
- 24M. DivkovićD
- 99B. SliszM
- 18M. EjdumM
- 11F. BundgaardM
- 29M. Frøkjær-JensenM
- 19S. FukudaM
- 51O. FengerF
- 10D. WassM
- 3Christopher OlivierD
- 9P. MortensenF
- 50W. Sonne SchmidG
- 27M. KöhlertD
- 15C. WintherM
- 7O. HyseniF
- 37R. CanutD
- 21M. YounisF
Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Brondby
FC Midtjylland
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026
- W1-0Randers FC23 August 2026
Brondby
- L0-3Randers FC6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Nordsjaelland30 August 2026
- W3-1Silkeborg24 August 2026
- W3-2Sonderjyske17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Brondby | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Brondby
- 17 May 2026FC Midtjylland 2–3 BrondbySuperliga
- 12 April 2026Brondby 1–2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 1 March 2026FC Midtjylland 0–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 31 August 2025Brondby 1–3 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 19 May 2025Brondby 1–2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 30 March 2025FC Midtjylland 0–2 BrondbySuperliga
Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Brondby
FC Midtjylland
- F. Etim3 goals2 assists
- S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assists
Brondby
- M. Frøkjær-Jensen2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.16 goals for FC Midtjylland and 0.91 for Brondby; the game produced 4 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Rasmus Kristensen 1' (FC Midtjylland), Stanley Iheanacho 23' (FC Midtjylland), Max Isaac Ejdum 69' (Brondby), Cho Gue-sung 74' (FC Midtjylland), Magnus Jensen 89' (FC Midtjylland).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for FC Midtjylland against 0.91 for Brondby. FC Midtjylland's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.49 for Brondby.